Game of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Bengals: 12-7, 12-7 ATS

Chiefs: 14-5, 10-9 ATS

The Chiefs were hammered by the Bills back in October, but as we saw in last week's Divisional Round, teams change a lot over the course of the season, and Patrick Mahomes specifically changed how he attacks two deep safeties.

The Bengals and Chiefs, however, just played less than a month ago. How much different will these two teams be from Cincinnati's 34-31 win?

In that game, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase teamed up for a huge day, and it's one of the many games this season that contributed to Burrow's fifth overall ranking in Real Quarterback Rating and second overall rating in Offensive Passer Rating.

This offense sat on the sidelines in Week 18 and didn't really cook in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but the last time Cincinnati was dominant, it came against the Chiefs, and there is no reason to think it won't have another big game on Sunday.

Of course, as we saw with Buffalo, having a great game on offense isn't all that it takes to win at Arrowhead Stadium in the postseason. Josh Allen was spectacular in the Divisional Round, and he lost. Patrick Mahomes is eighth overall in Real Quarterback Rating, 10th in Offensive Passer Rating, and his 25 touchdown passes is the most ever through 10 career postseason games.

This game really comes down to two things. Can the Bengals defense force a turnover or two and make the Chiefs punt another two times? Can the Cincinnati offensive line hold up better than it did last week against Tennessee?

It's one thing to give up nine sacks against a Ryan Tannehill-led offense. It's another thing entirely when Patrick Mahomes is on the other sideline.

Cincinnati Bengals Analysis Kansas City Chiefs
Value Rank Quality Stat Value Rank
11.76 9 Quality Stats Power Rankings 11.10 7
57% 7 Quality Standings 64% 4
13.36 4 Scoreability 14.05 13
15.86 10 Bendability 17.23 3
2.50 7 Intelligence Index 3.18 4
7.23 3 Real Passing Yds/Attempt 6.82 9
6.32 19 Defensive Real Passing Yds/Attempt 6.67 24
91.87 5 Real Quarterback Rating 89.58 8
82.33 18 Defensive Real Quarterback Rating 87.06 25
9.54 8 Real Quarterback Rating Differential 2.52 16
106.78 2 Offensive Passer Rating 97.79 10
93.07 17 Defensive Passer Rating 92.22 16
13.71 7 Passer Rating Differential 5.57 13
12.00 16 Offensive Hog Index 2.67 1
8.67 12 Defensive Hog Index 14.00 21
3.05 11 Relativity Index 7.88 5
7,456 10 Total Team Yards 7,965 2
7,374 23 Total Team Yards Allowed 7,155 17
82 16 Total Team Yards Differential 810 5
99.24 15 Offensive Rusher Rating 96.95 17
99.22 20 Defensive Rusher Rating 94.42 7
0.02 17 Rusher Rating Differential 2.53 13