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Game Analysis

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

TITANS: 9-7, 9-7 ATS

CHIEFS: 12-4, 10-5-1 ATS

We always say to be careful about misleading statistics, even when they're our Quality Statistics. A quick glance would seem to indicate that Sunday's AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium will be a whitewash. We're here to tell you it won't be.

First, an acknowledgement: Yes, the Chiefs are the favorites, and they should be. Patrick Mahomes is healthy again and playing like it. Just ask the Texans defense. Yet, as much as the Chiefs should be the team headed to Miami, we have a sneaking suspicion that Derrick Henry may be such a dump truck against one of the AFC's most porous defenses that it may not go that way.

About that rushing differential. The Titans rank second in the league in Offensive Rusher Rating. The Chiefs rank 24th in Defensive Rusher Rating, even though that's improved over their early season form (and their 2018-19 postseason form). The Chiefs are a perfectly respectable 13th in Offensive Rusher Rating, but Tennessee's rushing defense is stout, ranking sixth league-wide.

The point is clear: Tennessee should be able to run the ball all day, controlling time of possession and making the most of their opportunities when they reach the red zone, just as they did in Baltimore. Kansas City will have to rely on their magic man under center.

That could spell trouble for the Titans defense, which ranks just 20th in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating and 18th in Defensive Passer Rating. Yet, that was the case last week in Baltimore and the Titans defensive backfield gave fits to presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, intercepting him three times and keeping the Ravens out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. If they can approximate that performance against an even more lethal quarterback, Sunday could be very, very interesting.

The pundits like the Chiefs. The bookmakers like the Chiefs. Most importantly, our three key indeces — Passer Rating Differential, Real QBR Differential and the Intelligence Index — all like the Chiefs. We're on the fence, and we certainly don't like them by 7.5 points based on Tennessee's performance in the first two rounds of the playoffs.