The Cold, Hard Football Facts have been successfully predicting the outcome of NFL games for over 20 years. Our 22 proprietary stats have told stories that other media outlets couldn’t explain. We predicted the Bengals dancing all the way to the Super Bowl last year very early in the regular season slate. After 17 weeks of play, we’ve identified the Bengals of 2022-23…

It’s the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville isn’t even in the playoffs, but rest assured, this team will roll on Saturday against the Titans. The Jaguars are one of the most dangerous lineups heading into the postseason because of how they rank in the Cold, Hard Football Facts. 

Four of our 22 quality stats have predicted victory at a 60% rate this season. All of these stats revolve around the best part of Jacksonville’s team: Trevor Lawrence. The Cold, Hard Football Facts have shown repetitively that quarterbacks matter in the NFL, and the narrative is recurring in 2022-23. 

This season, the four stats that have predicted victory at a 60% rate are Real Quarterback Rating, Offensive Passer Rating, Real Passing Yards/Attempt, and Total Team Yards. Jacksonville is positioned in the top ten in three of these metrics while sitting in 12th in Real Passing Yards/Attempt. 

After a mid-season lull, Lawrence and the passing game have gotten better by the week. Their upward trajectory is another reason to get excited about the Jaguars once they clinch a playoff spot against the Titans. 

Additionally, Jacksonville includes one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. This group was in the top ten last year but needed Lawrence to develop before their success showed. This happened in 2022-23 as the unit is currently second in our Offensive Hog Index. 

We measure offensive line success by combing rushing yards/attempt, negative pass play percentage, and third-down success to see which unit is the best in the NFL. The Jaguars are running the football effectively, keeping Lawrence upright and converting on third down. 

When this unit is combined with a generational talent under center and a team with nothing to lose, it’s dangerous. Outside of our big four stats, the Jaguars are also delivering in efficiency. 

Doug Pederson’s squad ranks eighth in the Quality Stats Power Rankings. They’ve beaten good teams consistently this season with offense, but their defense has stepped up in big spots. 

Jacksonville is fourth in Bendability, meaning they bend but don’t break. The team has allowed the 21st most yards in the NFL, but the Jaguars fit the mold when it comes to standing up in the red zone. If Jacksonville can continue to play great red zone defense and score on offense, they’re a nightmare in the AFC playoffs.