The 2018 season started with 32 teams. Dwindled down to 12 in the playoffs. Two weeks ago there were just four. And now… we have just two teams remaining. The New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams are playing in the last game you can bet on for the season. Bit sad right? Luckily we’re going to make the most of it by maximizing our payouts so we can all cash in one last time for the year.
Immediately after the Patriots beat the Chiefs in Overtime of the AFC Championship, the oddsmakers set the Pats/Rams Super Bowl LIII match-up as a Pick Em with an Over/Under at 57.5. But it didn’t take long for the line to move. Within 24 hours the line went to -1, then -1.5 and finally settling on New England -2.5 where it’s been for the last several days. The game’s total hasn’t seen much movement. After opening at 57.5 it’s come down to 56.5 but like the point spread, hasn’t changed all week.
The large majority of public money is being bet on the seasoned championship team from New England. In fact, nearly 76% of public money is still on the Pats to cover the spread.
Before we get into the different game bets, let’s take a look at some historical data:
-Favorites are 35-17-2 straight up and 28-20-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history .
-The Over has a slight edge on the Under: 27-24 (no over/under for Super Bowl I).
-The Over has hit in the Super Bowl in seven of the last ten years.
-NFC owns a 27-25 edge over the AFC in the first 52 Super Bowls.
-In Super Bowls in which the favorite won, they’ve covered the spread in all but six games.
-During the Patriots ten trips to the Super Bowl, they were favorites in six games.
-Of those six games, they covered the spread just once (2017 vs. Atlanta).
-During the Rams three trips to the Super Bowl they were favorites twice and failed to cover in both games.
-The Rams were underdogs in the 1980 Super Bowl vs. the Steelers. They failed to cover the 10.5 point spread
Straight Bets, Parlays and Teasers:
We discussed Player Props earlier in the week and provided some 2018 trends for both the Patriots and Rams against the number and straight up here.
For this article we’re focusing on three different types of bets for Super Bowl 53.
Straight Bet.
Parlay
Teaser
The Straight Bet is perhaps the most common type of wager. You simply make one wager on either the total score of the game-known as the “Total” or “Over/Under” (can also be broken down into Quarters or Halves) or making a bet on which team is going to win the game straight up -moneyline- or with the spread (also broken down into Quarters or Halves).
The Total
Game Over/Under 56.5. Betting on either side is at -110. For every $100 you want to win, you’ll need to risk $110.
1st Quarter Over/Under: 10.5 points Over pays +120. Under -150
2nd Quarter Over/Under: 17 points. Over pays +105. Under -135
1st Half Over/Under: 27.5 points. Over pays +105. Under -125
3rd Quarter Over/Under: 10.5 points. Over pays -120. Under -110
4th Quarter Over/Under: 14.5 points. Over pays -110. Under -120
-Both of the Patriots playoffs games hit the Over
-One of two Rams playoff games hit the Over
-The Rams averaged 32.2 points per game (2nd highest in the NFL)
-The Patriots averaged 27.2 points per game (4th highest in the NFL)
-The Rams Defense allowed 24 points per game during the regular season and 22.5 points per game during the playoffs
-The Patriots Defense allowed 20.3 points per game during the regular season (7th best) and 29.5 points per game in the playoffs (the most of any playoff team)
-56% of public money is on the Over.
With The Spread
Game: The Patriots are the favorites to win Super Bowl 53, making the Rams the underdog. The Rams get a 2.5 point handicap or “plus 2.5” while the Patriots are giving up 2.5 points or “minus 2.5”/
Patriots -2.5 is -110
Rams +2.5 is -110
1st Quarter Patriots -1/2 point pays out +125. Rams +1/2 point is -155
2nd Quarter Patriots -1/2 point pays out +103. Rams +1/2 point is -150
1st Half Patriots -1/2 point is -105. Rams +1/2 point is -115
3rd Quarter Patriots -1/2 point pays out +120. Rams +1/2 point is -150
4th Quarter Patriots -1/2 point pays out +108. Rams +1/2 point is -138
-As a favorite the patriots covered the spread in 10 out of 17 games
-The Rams were 9-8-1 against the spread in 2018
-The Rams were underdogs just once in 2018 and covered the spread in that game
-Both the Rams and Patriots covered the spread in both of their playoff games
Moneyline
Game: There is no handicap for the money line, it’s purely a bet on who is going to win the game. The Patriots are favored to win, so you’ll need to risk $145 to win back $100. The Rams are the underdog, so the payout is greater if they win. For every $100 you bet on the Rams to win, you get back $125 via a Rams Moneyline bet.
1st Half: Patriots are -125. Rams are +105
-Including playoffs the Rams finished with a 15-3 record
-Including playoffs the Patriots finished with a 13-5 record
-The Patriots are 12-5 when favored
-The Rams are 1-0 as an underdog
-62% of public money is on the Patriots Moneyline.
Parlay
Commonly referred to as a “suckers bet” Parlays offer BIG payouts but require correct wagers on two or more bets. In other words you make two or more wagers, package them together and then must win on all bets in order to successfully win a parlay. For example: You want to bet the Patriots on the Money Line and Over 56.6 for the game total. In order to win this parlay you need both of those bets to hit, if one of them lose (the game goes Under or the Rams win the game, the parlay loses). There’s no “partial winner” in a parlay. It’s a much riskier bet since you need multiple wagers to hit but the payouts are far greater compared to a straight bet.
For example: A $100 parlay on the Pats Money Line and the Over pays out $223. But if you made two separate straight bets on the Pats Money Line and Over, you would be risking $50 to win $45 on the Pats Money Line and risking $50 to win $34. You are risking the same amount in this example but the payout is $144 difference!!!
Since parlays offer much bigger parlays, some bettors get sucked in to the allure of the high reward aspect of this bet but often discount the much greater risk that comes along with it.
Teaser
A mix of the parlay bet and a with the spread bet but with a bit of a twist. Like the parlay bet, a Teaser packages two or more wagers into one bet where you need to win all bets within the group. But it also gives the bettor the opportunity to “play” with the point spread. By “playing” with the point spread you get a fixed amount of points to add or subtract on the Moneyline and Spread of the game. For example: The Patriots are -2.5 and the Over/Under is 56.5. But with a six point teaser you’ll reverse the odds in the Patriots favor, making them +3.5 “underdogs” and the Over/Under would be bumped to 62.5. You essentially are taking 12 points (six for each bet) and adding it to make the line more appealing to your preference. But when doing this, the odds increase and thus the payouts decrease. The example noted above Pats +3.5 and Under 62.5 pays out $91 on a $100 bet.
Teasers are a great bet if you think it will be a close game and don’t want to risk the original handicap. The payouts are less but so is the risk.
Do you plan on placing any bets on Super Bowl 53? Hit me up on Fancred (@BillEnright) and tell me which ones you really like
Enahance your winning in NFL betting or fantasy play through our quality stats. With your subscription you get...
Quality Stats
Our simple to use, ground-breaking Quality Stats power the winning game coverate at CHFF, which has produced an incredible record fo success analying teeams and agames for football bettors for over 20 years.
Game Capsule | + |
Prop Wagers | + |
Leader Boards | + |
Future Odds | + |
News | + |
Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.