Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes for a spot in the Super Bowl is about as good as it gets, and we'll get to watch the two excellent young signal-callers square off. The Bengals rallied from 14 down to upend the Chiefs in Week 17, with Kansas City having no answer for Ja'Marr Chase. For this one, the Chiefs are laying a touchdown and will be at Arrowhead Stadium.
Mahomes unsurprisingly ranks in the top ten of all of our passing metrics, and if the playoffs were included, he would surely be even higher after a dazzling performance against Buffalo last week. His start to the season was a little sluggish, but he may just be hitting his stride at the right time.
The Bengals' pass defense is slightly below average, so Mahomes and company should have little trouble moving the ball. They also have the top-ranked line on our Offensive Hog Index and should be able to keep a clean pocket.
Joe Burrow actually had a better regular season than Mahomes, ranking in the top five of each of our passing metrics. He also has multiple dynamic playmakers, and the Chiefs did not have the answers on the outside last time these teams met. Every jump ball seemed to be caught by a Bengal (usually Ja'Marr Chase).
The Chiefs will need to cover better if they want to win this time around, but it's hard to see how it can get any worse. The Bengal's pass protection also has nowhere to go but up after Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans last week.
Their offensive line was decidedly mediocre per the Offensive Hog Index and will need to be better. They cannot make that many mistakes against a team as talented as Kansas City.
This is going to be an aerial game on both sides. Neither side is particularly effective on the ground, and both will want the ball in the hands of their great quarterback as much as possible.
The three key CHFF Indexes (Intelligence Index, Real Quarterback Differential, and Passer Rating Differential) go to Cincinnati 2-1. Andy Reid and the Chiefs take the Intelligence Index, but Burrow propels the Bengals to edges in the passing stats.
The Chiefs are the better team here. Mahomes is entering peak form, and their defense has been better lately, with the exception of the first Bengals game, but the Bengals are the team with more paths to a cover.
Burrow's arm is capable of keeping them in it, but the backdoor will also be wide open late if necessary. The Chiefs should win, but the Bengals are the side to back.
Betting Pick: Bengals +7
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.