The Cold, Hard Football Facts have been successfully predicting the outcome of NFL games for over 20 seasons. One of the biggest narratives this year in the stats has been centered around the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings are a bad team with a good record. Many people believed they were a quality franchise after starting the year 8-1 with a win over the Bills in Week 10. However, they had their doors blown off against the Cowboys in Week 11, and this validated the Cold, Hard Football Facts argument.
Minnesota’s marquee win was against Buffalo, but can we even call the Bills a quality victory anymore?
Buffalo handed the Vikings a Week 10 win, and this has been the new norm in the second quarter of the season. This decline has been in multiple categories, but no area is bigger than the right arm of Josh Allen.
Allen was playing at an elite level six weeks into the season, and nobody could stop the Bills. Our biggest indicator of championship football teams within our 22 quality stats is Real Quarterback Rating.
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Real Quarterback Rating compiles all aspects of quarterback play to create an efficiency ranking. After Week 6 when Allen threw for 329 yards against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, he took over the top spot.
Buffalo was labeled as the AFC favorite after marching into Chiefs Kingdom and finding a way to win, but they’re starting to slowly decline to pretender status. Allen’s performances in the recent weeks have been a reason to fade Buffalo in the future markets.
Allen’s questionable decisions began at home against the Packers. The Bills were favored by 10.5 points, but Allen had multiple red zone interceptions, which led to a tighter game than expected. Buffalo still beat Green Bay by ten, but the matchup shouldn’t have been close.
Allen, who was consistently putting together 300+ yard performances, barley completed 50% of his passes for just 218 yards. Things got even worse for the quarterback when the Bills traveled to MetLife to face the Jets.
Allen was 18 of 34 for 205 yards and two interceptions with no touchdowns in a 20-17 loss. The Jets are improving, but they shouldn’t be able to beat the Bills in any capacity. Buffalo handed the game to New York, and things wouldn’t improve.
Buffalo hosted the Vikings in Week 10, and Allen had another two interceptions and a fumble, which single-handedly allowed Minnesota to win the game. Football is a team game, but Allen’s poor decisions have caused the franchise to not be looking up in the AFC East.
Even in Week 11, Allen led the team to a win, but threw for under 200 yards and rushed for seven. There is a noticeable difference in the quarterback’s on-play performance, and it’s solidified in the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
Allen has dropped seven positions in Real Quarterback Rating along with Offensive Passer Rating since Week 6. If you can’t throw the ball effectively in the NFL, it’s very hard to win. The Bills look like regular-season contenders, but if this play quality continues, Buffalo will be exposed in January.
Looking at Buffalo’s Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Lions, there is one area where Detroit is better than the Bills.
This metric is Scorebility, and it measures how well a team converts yards into points. Allen’s red zone decisions have helped the Bills wrack up yards without scoring. Yards don’t win, and that’s why Allen’s statistical drop has been accompanied by a 2-2 record.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.