The AFC has been regarded as a three horse race throughout the season. The Ravens, Bills and Chiefs are the three teams with a legitimate chance to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

We have been open in saying that the CHFF proprietary stats don’t work well with the Chiefs because Patrick Mahomes defies all metrics. However, any team is beatable and there is one roster that we believe has the best chance to slay the giant.

Buffalo is the 5th ranked team in the Quality Stats Power Rankings, and they have beaten the Chiefs once this season. However, we don’t believe Josh Allen and company will even get another crack at the back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

If the games play out as expected this weekend, the Bills and Ravens will compete in the AFC Divisional Round in Buffalo. While this game would be at Highmark Stadium, we believe the Ravens will prevail because they’re the most talented team in the conference.

The media wants to paint the picture that Allen has outplayed Jackson. While it may be Allen’s “turn” to win the MVP, Jackson has been better in our proprietary stats as well as traditional numbers.

The quarterback ranks 1st in Real QBR, with Allen coming in second. While this isn’t a significant difference, we can see a big divide in Offensive Passer Rating and Real Passing Yards/Attempt. 

Jackson is 1st in Offensive Passer Rating and Real Passing Yards/Attempt. Allen is 5th and 9th, respectively, in those categories. Jackson has outplayed Allen, and when you combine Derrick Henry into the mix, it’s hard not to trust the Ravens offense over the Bills. 

Stats cannot account for Jackson disappearing in the playoffs, but hopefully experience will help the quarterback bring his regular season form into the postseason. 

Defensively, Baltimore is 5th in Total Team Yards Allowed, where Buffalo is 17th. The Ravens are also 3rd in Defensive Hog Index where Buffalo is 15th. 

It’s clear that both teams have defensive flaws, and a playoff game could come down to a quarterback duel. Yet, it’s hard to not trust Jackson based on the numbers, even on the road.

If the Ravens and Bills both win as heavy favorites this weekend, we will find out in the Divisional Round.