The New York Jets have struggled this season, and it seems like a cancer has spread throughout the locker room. New York's win total was set between 9.5 and 10.5 this season, and they don't have any chance of hitting the over at their current level of play. 

Woody Johnson has stated that this is the best team the Jets have assembled in years, but they're not stacking up to expectations based on Cold, Hard Football Facts. Our proprietary stats have successfully predicted the outcome of NFL games and seasons for over 20 years, and the Jets are nearly in the bottom third of the NFL in the Quality Stats Power Rankings. 

The Houston Texans haven't been one of the best teams in the NFL, but they have areas of their team that can exploit New York for four quarters. Let's start with how we expect Aaron Rodgers to play on Thursday...

BAD

According to our metrics, the Texans have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season against the pass. They're sixth in Defensive Passer Rating, fourth in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating, and second in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt. 

These stats translate to "Bad news for Aaron Rodgers." For a comparison, Rodgers is 21st in Real Quarterback Rating, 17th in Offensive Passer Rating, and 22nd in Real Passing Yards/Attempt. 

If Rodgers performs, we will be astonished. His line is 233.5 on Thursday, and we're leaning under on the total. While he has gone over in two of his past three games, Houston's secondary should be too much to handle, especially after losing to the Patriots last week. 

We're also taking the under for Rodgers' longest completion at 35.5 yards. The best part about the Texans is their ability to contain deep passing plays. At the same time, the Jets added Davante Adams, but they still aren't an explosive team.

Our biggest fear for this prop would be Breece Hall breaking a screen for a touchdown, which is very possible. Yet, we're going under as this side of the line has hit in three of Rodgers past five games.