I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving; all that awaits now is another NFL Sunday.
Cold, Hard Football Facts helps to deliver you resources to fuel betting picks and DFS lineups, so let’s get right to three things you need to know ahead of Week 12.
For CHFF members, you can track how well teams with advantages in our statistics have done this season on our Correlation to Victory page.
After two down weeks, Week 11 was the resurgence for our numbers, with advantageous spots yielding a 9-6 record or better across the board, peaking with our Intelligence Index going 11-4.
The more intelligent teams, according to our metrics, have gone 120-44, good for a win 73% of the time.
Right behind them this season are teams with advantages in Real Passing Yards, winning at a 68% rate.
The statistics on CHFF are predictive and reflective, and it’s important to check out how all 32 teams rank across the board when planning your spread picks or moneyline selections.
For the weekly readers, you know that we break down QB grades every week, with the highlight Real Passing Yards/Attempt.
As a reminder of what the statistic tracks: “The Cold, Hard Football Facts use passing yards per attempt as a way to measure the effectiveness of each quarterback at getting the ball downfield. Longtime CHFF readers know that a quarterback’s average per attempt has an incredibly high correlation to success, often close to 80 percent in a given season.”
In an effort to find value in player props, I went to CHFF’s Game Capsule page to find the biggest disparities between Real Passing Yards/Attempt and Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt.
The goal is to find quarterbacks who will face off against vulnerable secondaries. Logic suggests these passers should be in for a big day.
This week, four quarterbacks fit the bill to consider:
Tom Brady, in particular, is a good one to load up, going against a Colts defense allowing 247.2 passing yards per game.
Joe Burrow’s over/under is currently 251.5 yards on DraftKings, a number he’s exceeded in 70% of games this season.
Jimmy Garoppolo currently is tenth on DraftKings drafts this week, with a salary of just $5,700. He’s one to consider in Week 12, throwing for two touchdowns in three straight games.
The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the most vulnerable secondaries to the long-ball this season, so if Baker Mayfield can take some shots, the numbers suggest he’ll connect on a few.
My favorite part of CHFF remains the Game Capsules. It’s the easiest way to see every game of the week and find games to target for either props or spread picks.
When scanning the page, there are a few games in particular that are heavily skewed to one team.
The following four teams all dominate the CHFF statistics in their matchup:
All four are strong bets this Sunday and worth a look. That will do it for this week’s look around CHFF. Good luck this weekend, and enjoy the NFL action!
For more NFL betting info, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.
Enahance your winning in NFL betting or fantasy play through our quality stats. With your subscription you get...
Quality Stats
Our simple to use, ground-breaking Quality Stats power the winning game coverate at CHFF, which has produced an incredible record fo success analying teeams and agames for football bettors for over 20 years.
Game Capsule | + |
Prop Wagers | + |
Leader Boards | + |
Future Odds | + |
News | + |
Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.