As the only team in the NFC to never play in the Super Bowl and as a team that hasn't won a playoff game since current head coach Dan Campbell was 15 years old, most NFL fans have a spot for the Lions. If there was an NFL version of the movie "Major League," the obvious choice in teams would be Detroit.
We want them to be successful, and now that we're getting a look under the hood of Lions training camp, thanks to the folks at HBO Sports and "Hard Knocks," we're putting our money where our heart is.
No, the love of Campbell and company hasn't led to the leaving of our senses. No one actually believes that they are the best team in the NFC North and that they are going to get past the great offensive weapons in Minnesota and the repeat MVP quarterback in Green Bay. But that hasn't stopped the betting.
Of all the possible division champion futures bets, the Lions at +850 are generating the second most action. Only the Eagles in the NFC East, paying +170, are getting more bets. A full 57% of the bets that have been placed on the winner of the NFC North have gone to Detroit.
There was a time last season when the Lions were 0-10-1. It looked quite likely that they would finish the 2021 season winless. Instead, they won three of their final six games, and now the over/under on their win total for 2022 is 6.5.
That's a big jump for a team that is young and didn't improve its quarterback situation, but it's a jump that bettors are embracing. Bettors who have wagered on the Lions' win total have put their money on the over 95% of the time, which is easily the most in the NFL.
It's been five years since the Lions won as many as seven games, but the betting public is convinced that another one is coming in 2022.
An MVP bet on a Lions would be too much. But there are plenty of bettors who expect to see Detroit take home a decent amount of postseason hardware.
Campbell is a great sound bite, and it seems like he has his team totally buying into his mentality. The fans like it too, and of all the possible bets to win NFL Coach of the Year, Campbell has become the favorite. At +1200, he has more than 30% of the total action, with no other coach getting more than six percent.
The very first time Campbell met the media as the head coach of the Lions, he referenced "The Big Lebowski." Now NFL bettors are convinced that he will be The Dude in 2022.
The same overwhelming lead in betting exists for Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson. For Hutchinson, it makes more sense. He was the second overall pick in the draft, and there are no obvious rookie quarterbacks that he'll be competing with for headlines. But still, 50% of the bets have gone to Hutchinson, and that is overwhelming.
Obviously, having your training camp play out on premium cable in August adds to the profile of your team. Does it also add to the win total?
Last summer, the Cowboys were the featured training camp team, and they finished the season 12-5. When the season began, the line on their season win total was 9.5. When compared to 2020, Dallas improved by six games.
In 2020 there were two featured training camp teams, the Chargers, and Rams. The Chargers' win total line was 7.5, and the Rams was 8.5. The Chargers fell just short at 7-9 as they unexpectedly had to start Justin Herbert before they were ready. The Rams, however, went over with a 10-6 final season record.
The 2019 team was the Raiders, and they went over by one win. The 2018 Browns went over by two wins.
There isn't really any science behind the Hard Knocks effect, but the results are clear. Four of the previous five training camp featured teams have gone over on wins the season they were profiled.
Don't be afraid of joining the Lions hype train. It's going places.
Enahance your winning in NFL betting or fantasy play through our quality stats. With your subscription you get...
Quality Stats
Our simple to use, ground-breaking Quality Stats power the winning game coverate at CHFF, which has produced an incredible record fo success analying teeams and agames for football bettors for over 20 years.
Game Capsule | + |
Prop Wagers | + |
Leader Boards | + |
Future Odds | + |
News | + |
Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.