Lamar Jackson Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
The Ravens being nearly a 10-point favorite in a divisional playoff game may be a little lofty because the Steelers have historically contained Jackson. He is 3-5 against Pittsburgh with eight passing touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Mike Tomlin is an elite defensive mind, and something he emphasizes during Ravens week is rush lane integrity. I don't believe there is a better coach in the NFL when it comes to keeping Jackson in the pocket than Tomlin.
If Jackson can't escape the pocket he becomes much less effective of a passer and the Steelers have proven this consistently. Jackson's rushing line is set at 48.5, and he went under this total in both games against the Steelers.
Jackson has surpassed 48.5 yards in just three of his eight career games against Pittsburgh. While Baltimore should win, Pittsburgh has the game script to keep this game close and this starts by having rush lane integrity against Jackson.
Bucky Irving Over 114.5 Rush + Rec
Bucky Irving should have been in the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation for the Buccaneers. It took time for him to take the starting job and he still recorded 1,122 yards rushing, 392 yards recieving, and eight touchdowns.
The Commanders rank 20th in Defensive Rusher Rating, 19th in Defensive Passer Rating and 30th in Total Team Yards Allowed. Tampa Bay should emphasize Irving early in the game to help set up the pass.
The reason I'm taking the combined total is because Irving has been a strong pass catcher, and his reps have gone up in close games. This should be a nailbiter which means Irving is on the field more than White, racking up yards on the ground and through the air.
Justin Jefferson Over 90.5 Receving Yards
Justin Jefferson and Sam Darnold had multiple opportunities to connect in the end zone against the Lions. Jefferson dropped a pass and Darnold missed a few throws that would have resulted in touchdowns.
While the stats weren't massive, the most recent Lions game showed that Kevin O'Connell is going to try and get the ball into his best players hands. Jefferson is in a great spot to bounce back because Los Angeles has been bad in the secondary.
They rank 21st in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt and 23rd in Defensive Passer Rating. Jefferson had eight catches for 115 yards in his first game against Los Angeles, and this should be another big performance coming off the loss.
Texans +3 @ Chargers
Texans vs Chargers is probably the least exciting game of the playoff slate, but it could have the most value. The public is treating the Chargers like world beaters, and they're in a better spot coming into this game, but they also have a 3-5 record against teams above .500.
Houston didn't end the season well, losing two of their final three games against the Chiefs and Ravens. However, Los Angeles isn't on this level.
The Texans haven't hit their ceiling in 2024, but the home crowd should help. While they have a ton of offensive injuries like Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, they still have playmakers in the passing game with Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz, combined with an 1000 yard rusher in Joe Mixon.
The defense has carried Houston all season, and they can tame an inconsistent Chargers offense. Houston is seventh in Defensive Rusher Rating and fourth in Defensive Rusher Rating.
Neither offense gives me a lot of confidence, but these teams are on a very even playing field. I believe Houston's defense will show up and this could come down to who has the ball last. Hopefully, the Texans can find a spark on offense in critical moments.
