Sam Darnold Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Sam Darnold is 10th in the NFL in passing yards with 2,952 this season. He is also fourth in touchdowns with 23, and should get a lot of attention in free agency. He has quietly put up some big numbers the past couple of weeks, including 330 against the Bears on November 24. 

The Vikings have a great matchup against the Falcons on Sunday, and they should attack Atlanta's secondary. The Falcons rank 30th in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating and 28th in Defensive Passer Rating according to our proprietary stats. 

They're much tougher against the run, ranking sixth in Defensive Rusher Rating. The best way to beat the Falcons is through the air, and Darnold is good enough to make plays with his arm. 

Saquon Barkley Over 21.5 Rushing Attempts 

Saquon Barkley's rushing yards line is 113.5, and this is the fifth highest rushing total in DraftKings Sportsbook history. While Barkley has the matchup to go over this total, the safer way to bet on him is through his attempts. 

Barkley has exceeded 21.5 attempts in four of his past five games. Carolina has been playing much better, so we believe they can keep this game relatively tight for a period of time. However, if they do keep it tight, it won't be through lighting up the scoreboard. 

We see the Eagles pounding the football consistently throughout this contest and controlling the clock. The Panthers rank 28th in Defensive Rusher Rating, while the Eagles are fourth in Offensive Rusher Rating. 

Bucs -4.5 1H vs Raiders

The Buccaneers are coming off a stolen win against the Panthers, but they still found a way to win the game. Tampa Bay plays hard, and they don't quit. 

People are high on the Raiders because they're coming off a blown game against the Chiefs. Yet, Kansas City plays everyone tight so we wouldn't read into this game too closely. While Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders offense looked strong, their production came in the second half. 

Baker Mayfield is notorious for responding after slow starts, so we expect Tampa Bay to come out firing early. The Raiders are 24th in Defensive Rusher Rating, so the Buccaneers should find success with Bucky Irving.

Additionally, the Raiders are 24th in Defensive Passer Rating, so if Tampa Bay can tame Maxx Crosby, they have a good chance to end this game early. 

Chargers +3.5 @ Chiefs 

The Chiefs don't cover against anyone. They're the best winners in the NFL, but they don't win by significant margins. When you look at key metrics according to our proprietary stats, the Chargers are a better team than the Chiefs. 

Kansas City plays slow on offense, and they haven't been strong in the red zone. The Chargers have been stout when teams cross the 50 yard line, and if they can force Kansas City into field goals, it gives them a chance to win. 

This is a bad matchup for the Chiefs because the Chargers can throw and run the ball at a high level. Kansas City is reverting to an average defense, ranking 17th in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt and 16th in Defensive Passer Rating.

Chris Jones continues to make plays, but the hook is too valuable to pass, especially considering Los Angeles is just a better overall team.