Travis Kelce Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce has exceeded this line in 14 straight games. They don't call him Playoff Travis for nothing. Kelce is coming off a seven-catch performance for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Texans.
While Buffalo has the reputation of being a complete team, they do struggle on defense. Houston was a much better defense than Buffalo, so expect Kelce to perform again. Buffalo ranks 18th in Defensive Passer Rating, 17th in Total Team Yards Allowed, and 15th in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt.
Patrick Mahomes didn't look to his receivers much in the Divisional Round. While I expect this to change, Kelce will be a massive piece to the Chiefs winning formula.
Chiefs ML (-110) vs Bills
The Chiefs may not have the best stats in the NFL. If you took away their logo and just looked at the numbers, they would be at the bottom of the top third of teams in the NFL across the board. However, Kansas City knows how to win big games.
They have been to seven straight AFC Championship Games. If Mahomes wins three in a row, he will become the Michael Jordan of the NFL, and I don't think Kansas City will waste its opportunity.
I would rather lose money betting on Mahomes than go against him because he often comes out on top. Kansas City has covered in nine of its past 11 games.
They're at home. The top seeds in conference championship games have been 20-5 since 2003.
Eagles -6.5 vs Commanders
The first two games between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles are hard to quantify. The first was a primetime game in November, with a much more inexperienced Jayden Daniels on the road. The second was a game in which Jalen Hurts got hurt early, and the Eagles jumped out to a 21-7 lead.
While Jayden Daniels plays unbelievable football, the stats and experience favor the Eagles. There is a reason no rookie quarterback has led their team to a Super Bowl. It's hard to beat experienced championship-caliber football teams on the road.
Philadelphia is the top team in Defensive Rusher rating and second in Rusher Rating Differential. Washington is 20th in the Defensive Rusher Rating.
The Eagles have the team to keep Daniels off the field and run Saquon consistently. Barkley had two massive games against Washington in the first two meetings and has a rushing total of 130.5 this week, so expect a lot of burn.
If Jalen Hurts is healthy, he can still make every play needed behind a strong offensive line. Philadelphia is better in the trenches and has better weapons. If Daniels doesn't take over the game, the Eagles will win and cover.
Saquon Barkley Over 24.5 Rushing Attempts
Saquon Barkley's rushing total on DraftKings is 130.5. It's the highest ever, and while he should go over that line, I will never take a 130.5-yard rushing line. The attempts are a nice pivot from the rushing yards prop.
Barkley's line is 24.5, and he has gone over in four straight games. Philadelphia's significant advantage is on the ground, where the Commanders rank 19th in Defensive Rusher Rating and 16th in Defensive Hog Index.
The Eagles are fourth in Offensive Rusher Rating. Barkley is their ticket to the Super Bowl, and I expect them to utilize him throughout this game.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.