Roadmap to Success for Patriots in Buffalo

Tanner Kern

Negative Temperatures. Frozen Tundra. Football Weather.


All of these phrases come to mind when discussing the Patriots vs Bills game in Buffalo this weekend. The real temperature is slated to be four degrees, so with the wind chill, it’s going to be a very cold night in Orchard Park.


The public is very heavy on the Bills against the spread and on the money line. However, the Cold Hard Football Facts indicate this is going to be a close game. For the Patriots to win, they are going to have to play close to perfect, but I would not rule this outcome out of the equation.


It’s very hard to bet against Bill Belichick in the playoffs. The man is a football guru, and I guarantee he has a game plan in place to shut down the Bills.


I am no Bill Belichick. I am just a football guy who loves to bet, and I am taking the Patriots ML and at +4. For these bets to hit, a lot must go in our favor and the small percentage of people willing to take a chance on New England.


Here is my roadmap to success for the Patriots on Saturday.


Eliminate Josh Allen


Josh Allen is going to make plays, no matter how good Belichick’s game plan is on Saturday. The Bills rank seventh in Real Quarterback Rating fifth in Total Team Yards. Buffalo loves to take shots down the field, and this is one thing New England must eliminate early in the game.


In high school, I learned about Newton’s Third Law of Motion. This states that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. If Josh Allen completes passes down the field, it will force Josh McDaniels to take shots with Mac Jones.


I am not saying Jones cannot handle the heat. He has played in a lot of big games over the past two seasons, but he needs to limit his mistakes. More throws create more chances for errors, so the Patriots need to be careful about when they take chances.


If New England’s defense can limit Buffalo’s scoring, McDaniels call sheet will become a lot bigger.


Run the Ball


The second necessity for the Patriots is to do what they have done all season. New England is best when they are running the football.


The team ranks fifth in Offensive Rusher Rating and first in Scorebability. They convert yards into points better than any team in the league. By running the ball, it will help open up the passing game.


Jones is best with play-action and quick passes. If they can get him confident in the short to intermediate passing game, I think he has a strong night. Yet, none of this is possible without a terrific night from the offensive line and running backs.


This will help the team convert on third down and keep the clock moving. A low-scoring game favors the Patriots. If this turns into a shootout, Buffalo will be advancing.