The 2021 quarterback class, headlined by Trevor Lawrence, was elite relative to years prior. The jump that a signal caller must make from year one to two is difficult, and it’s a sign of a player’s career trajectory.
Six sophomore quarterbacks will start for their respective franchises this season, and all have high expectations. However, the NFL is a challenging game, and most of these players will flame out over their NFL tenure.
Let’s rank the six quarterbacks based on their projected success in 2022.
Justin Fields is a prisoner of his own franchise. The former Buckeye was one of the most gifted players coming out of college a season ago, but Chicago will struggle this season. Fields’ front office and coaching staff are brand new this year, focusing on cleaning up the mess from the old regime.
Fields and the Bears ranked 30th in Real Quarterback Rating last season, which is in no way indicative of a team that can go .500. This is the same zone as teams like the Texans, Lions, Falcons, and Giants, aka not a desirable area.
Davis Mills did some good things last season, but his consistency was an issue. This will be something the quarterback needs to improve on in 2022. Mills was solid down the season's stretch, completing nearly 70% of his passes in December and January.
Mills has a strong arm, but this got him into trouble last year. The Texans were 21st in Real Quarterback Rating, which is promising for a rookie. Mills could have a strong NFL career, but 2022 will not be his season as the Texans are in year two of a rebuild.
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Trevor Lawrence is arguably the most outstanding quarterback prospect of this generation. He can make all the throws, but he did not live up to the high expectations bestowed on him in his rookie campaign. The Clemson Tiger threw 12 touchdowns, and 17 picks a year ago while winning just three games as the starting quarterback.
Lawrence will work under a new coaching staff led by Doug Pederson, which should enhance the quarterback’s growth. This will be critical for the reigning 29th place finished in Real QBR.
Zach Wilson will have knee surgery on Thursday after suffering a torn meniscus in the Jets’ preseason opener. He is slated to miss two to four weeks, but this injury could worsen if doctors find an internal problem.
Wilson can make all the throws and deliver footballs in tight windows. He has one of the best young receiving groups in the game with Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Corey Davis. He also has a tremendous rookie running back in Breece Hall by his side. If Wilson is healthy, he will be much better than his 28th position in Real Quarterback Rating.
Mac Jones is in the best position for all the rookie quarterbacks. He does not have the most talent around him, but he plays in the best system under future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick.
Jones beat out Cam Newton in 2021 to win the starting job, and he did not look back. The quarterback helped lead the Patriots to the playoffs and secured a Pro Bowl invite in his first season.
The Patriots were 15th in Real Quarterback Rating a year ago, and once they took the training wheels of Jones, he could spin the ball. This season will be a massive test for Jones without his former OC Josh McDaniels, but I expect the quarterback to rise to the occasion.
Trey Lance sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo last season, but the franchise has moved in his direction. Lance has a great cast of talent around him to enhance his success. He will throw to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk.
He also has Kyle Shanahan, one of the most dynamic offensive minds in the NFL, calling the shots. There is no reason why Lance will not be successful in the NFL. Although, his success may take time, as he took very few snaps in 2021.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.