One must-have for a successful NFL team is a quarterback playing strong football. It’s very rare for a team to win a Super Bowl without an elite passer.
That’s one reason Cold, Hard Football Facts is your one-stop-shop for the NFL season, their wide offering of quarterback statistics.
We’re only one week into the 2021 season, but it’s never too early to begin studying the numbers.
If you’re considering placing a bet against the spread or bet a player prop for a quarterback or receiver, it would behoove you to read the below, and sign up for a CHFF account to keep track of the rankings yourself.
Real Passing Yards/Attempt: Best and Worst Quarterbacks from Week 1
As a refresher, Real Passing Yards/Attempt (RPYPA) is a way to measure the effectiveness of each quarterback at getting the ball downfield.
It’s one of CHFF’s hallmark statistics and has shown a high correlation to success. Just this past week, teams with an advantage in RPYPA went 14-2, good for a win-rate of 88%.
Top Ten from Week 1
Ranking | Team | Quarterback |
1 | Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford |
2 | San Francisco 49ers | Jimmy Garoppolo* |
3 | Cleveland Browns | Baker Mayfield |
4 | Seattle Seahawks | Russell Wilson |
5 | Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes |
6 | Houston Texans | Tyrod Taylor |
7 | Arizona Cardinals | Kyler Murray |
8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tom Brady |
9 | Carolina Panthers | Sam Darnold |
10 | Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Hurts |
Stafford had a monster debut for Los Angeles and seems to be in a good position to replicate his success against Indianapolis this weekend. The Colts gave up a big game in Week 1 to Russell Wilson (fourth on this list).
The biggest surprise from this past weekend was Tyrod Taylor’s performance in Houston, though I’d personally attribute that to a weak Jacksonville defense. The next few weeks will be very telling of what team the Texans have on their hands.
Bottom Ten from Week 1
Ranking | Team | Quarterback |
32 | Atlanta Falcons | Matt Ryan |
31 | Tennessee Titans | Ryan Tannehill |
30 | Chicago Bears | Andy Dalton* |
29 | Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen |
28 | New York Jets | Zach Wilson |
27 | Green Bay Packers | Aaron Rodgers |
26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Ben Roethlisberger |
25 | Detroit Lions | Jared Goff |
24 | Indianapolis Colts | Carson Wentz |
23 | Washington Football Team | Ryan Fitzpatrick/Taylor Heinicke |
Which result was most surprising to you at the end of Week 1? It’s certainly a tie for me, the Green Bay Packers getting destroyed by the New Orleans Saints, and the Buffalo Bills failing to get their offense going against Pittsburgh.
Both star quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen, find themselves at the bottom of this list to start the season. I trust they can bounce back, particularly Rodgers this week against a weak Detroit Lions secondary.
Real Quarterback Rating: A Different Look at Quarterback Performance
Another proprietary statistic on CHFF that should be followed closely is Real Quarterback Rating. Introduced in 2011 as a way to quantify all aspects of a quarterback’s performance, it has been a strong indicator of the best and worst QBs in the league.
It brings together passing numbers and rushing ability, along with total touchdowns, encompassed in one singular metric: Real Quarterback Rating.
Top Ten from Week 1
Ranking | Team | Quarterback |
1 | New Orleans Saints | Jameis Winston |
2 | Seattle Seahawks | Russell Wilson |
3 | Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford |
4 | Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes |
5 | Arizona Cardinals | Kyler Murray |
6 | Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Hurts |
7 | San Francisco 49ers | Jimmy Garoppolo* |
8 | Denver Broncos | Teddy Bridgewater |
9 | Cincinnati Bengals | Joe Burrow |
10 | Houston Texans | Tyrod Taylor |
It was a strong opener for the Saints and Jameis Winston, easily handling the Packers 38-3. Winston didn’t throw for a ton of yards, but he did toss five touchdowns, which has him topping the list after one week.
Two quarterbacks that a metric like
Real Quarterback Rating are going to favor are Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. Both offer so much more to their offense than what they can do with their arms. Murray only ran for 20 yards in Week 1, but one of his five carries went for a touchdown.
Jalen Hurts had a strong all-around game to start his season, contributing 62 yards on the ground and averaging 8.9 yards per rush.
Bottom Ten from Week 1
Ranking | Team | Quarterback |
32 | Green Bay Packers | Aaron Rodgers |
31 | Tennessee Titans | Ryan Tannehill |
30 | Atlanta Falcons | Matt Ryan |
29 | New York Jets | Zach Wilson |
28 | Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen |
27 | Baltimore Ravens | Lamar Jackson |
26 | Chicago Bears | Andy Dalton* |
25 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence |
24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Ben Roethlisberger |
23 | Los Angeles Chargers | Justin Herbert |
It’s surprising to see a quarterback like Lamar Jackson in the bottom ten of this statistic to start the year. He didn’t have the worst game, producing 303 yards of offense, but he accounted for just one touchdown in a Ravens loss.
Ryan Tannehill, ranked 31st in both quarterback metrics, needs to clean it up for Tennessee to meet the expectations set on them before this season began. Tannehill threw one interception and fumbled twice, resulting in his poor grade against the Cardinals.
I highly recommend exploring the rest of CHFF as you plan your weekend bets, with statistics that cover all facets of the game. For more NFL betting info, be sure to follow CHFF and me on Twitter,
@griffybets. Good luck this weekend!