With four games in the books, the predictive powers of our 2022 data should be rapidly accelerating, and we can start to draw more definitive conclusions about where to look for value and smart teams.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3.5)

We only have one huge Mental Mismatch this week, as Miami holds a 25-spot edge over the Jets. Even with Zach Wilson back under center for New York and Teddy Bridgewater getting the nod for Miami, this one should have a clear winner. Mike McDaniel will scheme the ball to his playmakers and Bridgewater is a competent backup who will get the ball in their hands. Miami is still the better team up and down the roster, and should benefit from some extra rest after their Thursday Night game.

THE PICK: Dolphins -170

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)

The Jags still top the Index and now get a much easier game at home against the winless Texans. They have a 14 spot Index edge but that understates the size of the advantage given how far they are ahead of the rest of the league. Trust Doug Pederson and this revitalized organization to take care of business.

THE PICK: Jaguars -350

PLUS MONEY SPECIAL

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-8.5) (London)

The upstart Giants come into this one with a surprising 3-1 record and an even more surprising 11-spot Index edge over Matt LaFleur’s Packers. Like Pederson in Jacksonville, Brian Daboll seems to have things headed in the right direction, and there may just be an upset brewing across the pond.

THE PICK: Giants +310