The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals will compete on Sunday with a trip to Super Bowl LVI on the line. When Vegas set the total in this game, lots of bettors claimed the total was too high.
A 54.5 point total is hefty, but it’s not too high when you look at the Cold, Hard Football Facts for each team. The combination of Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow creates the definition of over.
The Chiefs and Bengals both score points, and neither team is tremendous on defense. If you want to bet the under, go ahead, but I will not be that guy rooting for defense.
The Offenses
The most indicative stat of championship football teams is Real Quarterback Rating. The Bengals rank fifth in this metric behind Joe Burrow, and the Chiefs are eighth with Patrick Mahomes.
Anytime two-star quarterbacks meet, it equates to lots of points. Mahomes can extend plays, and Burrow is one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Each team is in the top ten for total yards as well. Both the Chiefs and Bengals convert yards into points because of the weapons on each side of the field. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins look strong for the Bengals, and Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman are stars for the Chiefs.
Defenses can keep games under, but the best part about this matchup is that defense will likely not be present. The last time these teams played in Week 17, they scored a combined 65 points.
I expect the same thing on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game.
The Defenses
Both defenses are getting better, but they are not statistically breaking records in the Cold, Hard Football Facts. The Bengals rank 23rd, and the Chiefs are 17th in Total Team Yards Allowed.
Both teams will throw the football, and the defensive metrics show the offenses will have success. The Chiefs are 16th in Defensive Passer Rating, and the Bengals are 17th.
The numbers are even worse when it comes to Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. Cincinnati is 18th, and Kansas City is 25th in this metric.
I expect offense to be plentiful and defense to be optional on Sunday. This should result in over 54.5 points.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.