Line Dancing NFL Week 12

Matthew Malec

The Los Angeles Chargers scored a thrilling win at home in primetime against the Steelers on Sunday night. Next up, a trip to Mile High against a well-rested Denver Broncos team that will be coming out of its bye week. The Chargers are laying a field goal on the road, let’s examine the matchup.

Justin Herbert has continued to build off of a strong rookie campaign and hovers around the top ten in each of our passing stats, including a fourth-place standing in Real Quarterback Rating. Throw in an offensive line on the top five of the Offensive Hog Index, as well as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the outside, and this is a formidable passing offense. 

But the Denver pass defense should be able to match them stride for stride. They rank fourth in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating and Defensive Passer Rating. They can also match the Chargers’ fifth-place ranking in Offensive Rusher Rating with their seventh-place spot in the defensive version of the metric. Their middling Defensive Hog Index number is of some concern, but, overall, they should be able to at least contain the Chargers offense.

When Denver has the ball, it looks like a similarly fair matchup. Teddy Bridgewater grades out as about an average quarterback, but the Chargers pass defense comes out similarly. The Chargers place 11th in Defensive Rusher Rating, but the Denver run game has been better recently, as talented rookie Javonte Williams has been more involved. Additionally, the Broncos’ offense holds the edge per the Hog Indexes, where the Chargers’ defense ranks just 21st.

Additionally, the Broncos sweep the three CHFF Key Indexes (Intelligence Index, Real Quarterback Rating Differential, Passer Rating Differential). They also rank one spot ahead in the Quality Stats Power Ratings.

Where does this leave us? What we have here is two fairly even teams, and we can get a field goal with the home team coming off of their bye. Denver is the clear side to back.

THE PICK: Broncos +3