The 49ers will try to repeat on Sunday what they did in Week 18 to punch their ticket to the postseason. San Francisco must beat the Los Angeles Rams in SoFi Stadium to advance to the Super Bowl. Not many people believe in the Niners, which is a valid stance.
San Francisco has clawed their way to the NFC Championship Game. They did not even score an offensive touchdown against the Packers last week but still found a way to win.
However, the Cinderella run should end on Sunday, right? Matthew Stafford looks too strong to lose, right? The Rams will easily prevail against the Niners, right? Wrong, wrong, WRONG.
I am not saying San Francisco will win, but if you think the Rams at -3.5 is an easy bet, I would think again. Everyone loves criticizing Jimmy Garoppolo, but I do not think it's very valid.
Garoppolo is actually a decent quarterback based on the Cold, Hard Football Facts. He ranks 11th in Real Quarterback Rating and ninth in Offensive Passer Rating. The Rams have an advantage in both areas ranking fourth and sixth, respectively.
Yet, if Garoppolo limits his mistakes, he can look just as efficient as Stafford on paper. The quarterback is 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career and 14-4 ATS.
Garoppolo must protect the football on Sunday but will not have to steal the show. This is thanks to the Niners' domination in the trenches and their strong rushing attack with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel.
The Niners rank tenth in Offensive Rusher Rating, compared to Los Angeles in 26th. The most dangerous teams at this point in the year can run the ball. If the 49ers find a way to pressure Stafford and keep the score close, they will on Sunday.
The Rams cannot control the clock. The only advantage they have is being explosive. If San Francisco controls the big plays, the Rams are in trouble.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have been money this season, and last week they revealed a strong run game would lead the Niners over the Packers. If San Francisco can execute the same strategy, they are heading to Super Bowl LVI.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.