We finally have a noteworthy primetime game when the Bengals travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens. The numbers support the Ravens in this game, but there is something about Joe Burrow when his back is against the wall that we don't want to mess with tonight.
Both teams have performed well in vital defensive metrics, which can make taking prop overs relatively tricky. However, we have found one spot in the game to exploit, according to the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have successfully predicted the outcome of NFL games and seasons for over 20 years. We have hit our CORE PLAYS at 60% this season, and we're eyeing Gus Edwards to go over a shallow line of 45.5 rushing yards.
Gus Edwards has received 11+ carries in all but two games this season. He is coming off a tough matchup against the Browns, where he accumulated just 24 yards on the ground. Yet, his night should be much easier against the Bengals front seven.
Edwards carried the ball ten times for 62 yards against Cincinnati in his first outing versus the Bengals on September 17. The matchup is there for Edwards to post similar numbers.
Cincinnati ranks 25th in Defensive Rusher Rating, 20th in Defensive Hog Index, and 20th in Total Team Yards Allowed. There has yet to be much to write home about for the Bengals upfront, and they will be without Sam Hubbard at DE tonight with an ankle injury.
The Ravens are down Ronnie Stanley at OT, but we still have confidence Baltimore's offensive line will win the trench battle. This will lead to Gus Edwards going over 45.5 rushing yards.