The NFL season is here, with Week 1 set to begin Thursday night between the Buccaneers and Cowboys. You have just one more day to place future bets for NFL win totals.
Here are four of my favorites as we gear up for the 2021 season.
Green Bay Packers OVER 10 Wins
Green Bay went 13-3 last season before losing in the NFC Championship Game. They dealt with some drama this offseason between MVP Aaron Rodgers, but that has been put to bed, with Rodgers reporting to camp and playing this season.
Ten wins feels extremely low for one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, and it’s one of my favorite overs for the season.
The Packers ranked first in Scoreability on CHFF last season, proven to be one of the most critical metrics for a successful team.
They also topped the NFL in Offensive Passer Rating and many other passing stats, no surprise considering Rodgers won the MVP with 48 passing touchdowns.
The Packers' defense has stars, most notably corner Jaire Alexander, so the balance is there for Green Bay to maintain their spot among the NFC elite.
New York Giants UNDER 7 Wins
The Giants struggle in many CHFF metrics and feel likely to win less than seven games this season.
While their Offensive Hog Index ranking, which tracks the quality of offensive lines, is average, they are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in football this season.
Success is built in the trenches, and it will be hard for Daniel Jones and the Giants to get going if they don’t get strong blocking from the line.
New York ranked 31st in Scoreability last season and 29th in Offensive Passer Rating, one of the league’s worst offenses.
Yes, the Giants get Saquon Barkley back this year, but reports suggest he may be limited. There’s a lot that skews negative in New York, and it’s why I’m betting they’re under for wins.
Buffalo Bills OVER 11 Wins
Buffalo is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season, so of course, I like them to surpass 11 wins.
The Bills went 13-3 last year before losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
Josh Allen had his coming-out party, emerging as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Allen fueled a Bills offense that ranked 5th in Scoreability and 3rd in Offensive Passer Rating.
What pushes Buffalo over the edge is their elite balance, ranked 5th in Defensive Passer Rating.
To both throw the ball and slow down the pass so effectively makes Buffalo one of the best teams in the league.
With their core in place from their strong 2020 season, the sky’s the limit. The city of Buffalo deserves a championship.
Washington Football Team OVER 8.5 Wins
Our final pick is back in the NFC East, with the defending champion Washington Football Team.
8.5 wins is low for a team with the defensive caliber of Washington.
Washington was tied for fourth in Defensive Hog Index, owners of one of the best defensive lines in football. Chase Young is a star and could win Defensive Player of the Year as an anchor for this strong unit.
Washington ranked third in Defensive Passer Rating, so the team is elite at getting to the quarterback, slowing down the run, and stopping the pass.
It’s the perfect recipe, I honestly think this is the best defense in football, and they can easily exceed their projected win total in a still-weak NFC East.
That will do it! I can’t wait for the season to kick off and continue bringing you the CHFF numbers that stick out. Plenty of betting advice still to come, be sure to follow Cold Hard Football Facts and @griffybets on Twitter for more.