The Mental Mismatches are back and should only grow stronger as we get more data from this season and learn more about each team’s coaching and style. Already we see cleaner trends developing as teams like Buffalo jump into the top five while Seattle slides into the bottom half.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (+3)
New England scraped past Pittsburgh last week while Baltimore lost a heart-breaker against Miami, but a 26 spot Index edge for the road team shows us where we want to be. Baltimore should bounce back, and we are likely getting a discount due to last week’s collapse.
THE PICK: Ravens -150
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
The Bucs are limping into this one with Chris Godwin out, and Mike Evans suspended, but the top-ranked team on the Index may be able to make do with a little less talent. They hold a 23-spot advantage and are way ahead of the pack. Expect Tom Brady and company to find a way in this big NFC clash.
THE PICK: Buccaneers -1
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)
The Chiefs come into this one with a 21 spot Index edge and should be extra rested after not playing since last Thursday. That also means more prep time for Andy Reid and his staff against a Colts team that was run off the field by the Jaguars last week. Expect Reid and company to come in ready to roll against a team still finding its footing. This one could get ugly.
THE PICK: Chiefs -270
PLUS MONEY SPECIAL
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
After they dismantled Indy last week, the Jags surged 19 spots on the Index up to fourth place, 19 spots ahead of Los Angeles. Doug Pederson is a massive coaching upgrade for the Jags, and he should be able to keep them in this game, especially as Justin Herbert adjusts to playing with fractured rib cartilage.
THE PICK: Jaguars +7