Pigskin Man does not live by offense alone.
Yet year after year fans and analysts fall in love with the spectacle of offensive fireworks. They begin to overvalue one-dimensional teams that put up a lot of points.
Yet year after year, decade after decade, those same spectacular offenses fizzle in the postseason. And they typically fail in a fiery Hindenburg-like disaster that's hard to comprehend.
The football world got further proof of this phenomenon last night in Super Bowl LIII as one of the sexiest, highest-flying offenses in NFL history was, in the biggest game of the year, reduced to an ugly little cockroach that crawled under a rock to die.
The Los Angeles Rams had averaged 32.94 points per game during the 2018 regular season. That total was good enough for No. 12 in the entire Super Bowl Era. Yet this same unstoppable offense produced just 3 points in its 13-3 Super Bowl loss last night to the dynastic New England Patriots.
The difference of -29.94 points makes the Rams performance last night the single greatest offensive meltdown in the 53 years of the Super Bowl Era.
But fans should not be surprised by what they witnessed Sunday night.
After all, as the Cold, Hard Football Facts have long noted, great offenses invariably collapse under the pressure of playoff football.
The 2018 Rams are just the latest in a long, long, long, long, long list of historic offenses that failed to live up to the hype in the playoffs.
Here’s a short list of the 10 biggest losers among the greatest offenses of the Super Bowl Era – the teams that failed in the most statistically spectacular fashion to live up to the hype.
No. 1 – 2018 Rams (32.94 PPG) – Lost Super Bowl 13-3 (-29.94)
No. 2 – 2013 Broncos (37.87 PPG) – Lost Super Bowl 43-8 (-29.87)
No. 3 – 2004 Colts (32.6 PPG) – Lost divisional round, 20-3 (-29.6)
No. 4 – 2000 Broncos (30.3 PPG) – Lost wildcard round, 21-3 (-27.3)
No. 5 – 1983 Redskins (33.8 PPG) – Lost Super bowl, 38-9 (-24.8)
No. 6 – 2007 Patriots (36.8 PPG) – Lost Super Bowl, 17-14 (-22.8)
No. 7 – 1966 Chiefs (32.0 PPG) – Lost Sup9er Bowl, 35-10 (-22.0)
No. 8 – 2012 Patriots (34.8 PPG) – Lost AFC title game 28-13 (-21.8)
No. 9 – 2015 Panthers (31.25 PPG) – Lost Super Bowl, 24-10 (-21.25)
No. 10 – 1967 Raiders (33.4 PPG) – Lost Super Bowl 33-14 (-19.4)
By the way, this is a phenomenon that existed in the earliest days of the NFL, too. Consider the case of the 1942 Bears. They dominated the young league with an 11-0 record and averaged an epic 34.2 PPG – only to lose 14-6 to the Redskins in the NFL title game (a difference of -28.2 points).
Back here in the Super Bowl Era, a total of 38 teams have averaged 30.0 PPG or more. That list of 38 teams includes three here in the 2018 season alone that produced more than 30.0 PPG.
Of these 38 most historic of offenses, only 5 went on to win the Super Bowl. Think about that. The greatest, most spectacular offenses in modern NFL history. And 33 of 38 failed to win it all – including all three of this year’s best, most historic offenses.
Among these 38 teams that scored 30.0+ PPG are the Top 12 offenses of the Super Bowl Era. All 12 failed to win the Super Bowl.
This list of loser includes two teams just this season that were celebrated all year lon but failed to win it all (Chiefs, Rams).
Think about, that, too: the 12 greatest in modern NFL history all failed. Not only that almost all of them failed in spectacular fashion.
Here’s a look at every offense of the Super Bowl Era that produced 30.0 PPG or more. You’ll see that almost all of them failed in the postseason — and most of them failed dramatically. None more devastatingly than the ugly Hindenburg of a performance by the Rams in Super Bowl LIII.
GREATEST OFFENSES OF THE SUPER BOWL ERA (and their spectacular failures)
Rank | Team | Record | PPG | Result | Difference |
1 | 2013 Broncos | 13-3 | 37.87 | Lost Super Bowl, 43-8 | -29.87 |
2 | 2007 Patriots | 16-0 | 36.8 | Lost Super Bowl, 17-14 | -22.8 |
3 | 2018 Chiefs | 12-4 | 35.3 | Lost AFC title game, 37-31 | -4.3 |
4 | 2011 Packers | 15-1 | 35.0 | Lost divisional round, 37-20 | -15 |
5t | 1998 Vikings | 15-1 | 34.8 | Lost NFC title game, 30-27 | -7.8 |
5t | 2012 Patriots | 12-4 | 34.8 | Lost AFC title game, 28-13 | -21.8 |
7 | 2011 Saints | 13-3 | 34.19 | Lost divisional round, 36-32 | -2.19 |
8 | 1983 Redskins | 14-2 | 33.81 | Lost Super Bowl, 38-9 | -24.81 |
9t | 2000 Rams | 10-6 | 33.75 | Lost wildcard round, 31-28 | -5.75 |
9t | 2016 Falcons | 11-5 | 33.75 | Lost Super Bowl, 34-28 | -5.75 |
11 | 1967 Raiders | 13-1 | 33.4 | Lost Super Bowl, 33-14 | -19.4 |
12 | 2018 Rams | 13-3 | 32.94 | Lost Super Bowl, 13-3 | -29.94 |
13 | 1999 Rams | 13-3 | 32.88 | Won Super Bowl, 23-16 | -9.88 |
14 | 2004 Colts | 12-4 | 32.6 | Lost divisional round, 20-3 | -29.6 |
15 | 2010 Patriots | 14-2 | 32.38 | Lost divisional round, 28-21 | -11.38 |
16 | 1968 Raiders | 12-2 | 32.36 | Lost AFL title, 27-23 | -9.36 |
17t | 1984 Dolphins | 14-2 | 32.1 | Lost Super Bowl, 38-16 | -16.1 |
17t | 2011 Patriots | 13-3 | 32.1 | Lost Super Bowl, 21-17 | -15.1 |
19 | 1966 Chiefs | 11-2-1 | 32 | Lost Super Bowl, 35-10 | -22 |
20 | 2009 Saints | 13-3 | 31.9 | Won Super Bowl, 31-17 | -0.9 |
21 | 1966 Cowboys | 10-3-1 | 31.79 | Lost NFL title, 34-27 | -4.79 |
22 | 1994 49ers | 13-3 | 31.6 | Won Super Bowl, 49-26 | +17.4 |
23 | 2018 Saints | 13-3 | 31.5 | Lost NFC title game, 26-23 | -8.5 |
24 | 2001 Rams | 14-2 | 31.4 | Lost Super Bowl, 20-17 | -14.4 |
25 | 1998 Broncos | 14-2 | 31.31 | Won Super Bowl, 34-19 | +2.69 |
26 | 2015 Panthers | 15-1 | 31.25 | Lost Super Bowl, 24-10 | -21.25 |
27 | 1968 Cowboys | 12-2 | 30.79 | Lost divisional round, 31-20 | -10.79 |
28 | 2006 Chargers | 14-2 | 30.75 | Lost divisional round, 24-21 | -9.75 |
29 | 1987 49ers | 13-2 | 30.6 | Lost divisional round, 36-24 | -6.6 |
30 | 2015 Cardinals | 13-3 | 30.56 | Lost NFC title, 49-15 | -15.56 |
31 | 2014 Packers | 12-4 | 30.37 | Lost NFC championhip, 28-22 | -8.37 |
32 | 2003 Chiefs | 13-3 | 30.35 | Lost divisional round, 38-31 | +0.65 |
33t | 1991 Redskins | 14-2 | 30.31 | Won Super Bowl, 37-24 | +6.69 |
33t | 2000 Broncos | 11-5 | 30.31 | Lost wildcard round, 21-3 | -27.31 |
35 | 2004 Chiefs | 7-9 | 30.19 | Missed NFL playoffs | n/a |
36 | 2014 Broncos | 12-4 | 30.12 | Lost divisional playoffs, 24-13 | -17.12 |
37 | 2012 Broncos | 13-3 | 30.06 | Lost divisional round, 38-35 | +4.94 |
38 | 1975 Bills | 8-6 | 30 | Missed NFL playoffs | n/a |
As you can see, almost every great offense of the past 53 years failed to win a championship. And in almost EVERY case that offense collapsed in remarkable fashion, just a punchless shadow of their regular-season selves.
The Patriots, you might notice, have been on both sides of this phenomenon. The New England defense under Bill Belichick has engineered two of the three greatest performances in modern NFL history; conversely, New England offense has fielded historically prolific units that failed to produce in the biggest game of the year, including the crushing loss by the 18-0 Patriots to the statistically soft and second-rate Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
Fans and analysts like to say that “defense” wins championships. These people are wrong.
The reality is that balance wins championships. Teams that play well in all phases of the game typically persevere in the postseason while teams that excel in one only area, and specifically on offense, typically fail in the postseason.
The Patriots, despite their many well-chronicled flaws, were the most balanced team in this postseason — allowing them to survive a tournament that included three of the 12 most prolific offenses of the Super Bowl Bowl Era.
Look at the few great offenses that actually did win a Super Bowl. You'll see that all were part of strong, balanced teams.
The 1999 Rams are the best offense to win a Super Bowl (32.9 PPG; 13th). But the celebrated “Greatest Show on Turf” also fielded the NFL’s No. 4 scoring defense that year, too (15.1 PPG) and won a Super Bowl in which they surrendered just 16 points.
The 2009 Saints are the second-best offense to win a Super Bowl (31.9 PPG). They ranked No. 3 in both Defensive Passer Rating (the most important measure of a team’s championship potential) and interceptions (26). It was defensive back Tracy Porter’s pick-six on Peyton Manning that ensured the team’s Super Bowl victory.
The 1994 49ers are the third-best offense to win a Super Bowl (31.6 PPG). They ranked No. 6 in scoring defense (18.5 PPG) and were part of the greatest defensive dynasty in the history of football. The 49ers went an incredible 17 straight seasons (1981-97) and NEVER gave up 300 points in a season.
Bottom line: don't fall in love with sexy, high-powered offenses. History shows, and the 2018 season shows, that you'll only get burned.
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