We’re on to Week 2, and fresh data is available at Cold Hard Football Facts for the start of the season.
While the sample size is small, we can begin looking at performance from Week 1 to guide our NFL bets this weekend, and one in particular I like is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover -12.5 at home against the Atlanta Falcons.
It’s a big spread, I know, but the Bucs are that good, and the Falcons are that bad.
The Falcons are entering a transitional phase for the franchise, and while not many thought they would be a playoff team this season, few believed they’d be as bad as they were in Week 1.
3-point favorites against Philadelphia, the Falcons got destroyed in all three facets of the game en route to a 32-6 blowout.
The Falcons defense made Jalen Hurts look like a star, with three passing touchdowns. Atlanta was also gashed on the ground, ranked 26th in Defensive Rusher Rating after one week.
The Falcons also rank as a bottom-ten defense in key CHFF stats such as Defensive Real Passing Yards Per Attempt and Bendability.
It wasn’t just defensive woes that kept Atlanta from being competitive in Week 1.
Besides briefly establishing the run in the first quarter, the Falcons' offense stalled out all game. Atlanta ranks dead-last in Real Passing Yards Per Attempt, a tried and true indicator of the quality of a team’s passing game. Matt Ryan couldn’t get anything going against this Eagles defense.
It’s hard to imagine the Falcons get better, going against a far superior team in Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers opened the season last Thursday, squeaking by the Dallas Cowboys 31-29. While the defense left something to be desired, the offense looked it’s usual dominant self.
Tampa Bay is in the upper echelon of most major offensive categories, and now gets a soft matchup against this porous Atlanta defense to continue their winning ways.
The Cowboys' offense poses much more of a threat than the Falcons, so there’s plenty to be confident about when it comes to this Buccaneers defense in Week 2.
Few teams have the depth on offense like Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and Antonio Brown had monster games in Week 1 and should be primed for another good game on Sunday.
Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette were a bit quieter to start their seasons, but based on 2020 data, this offense is one of the best in the entire NFL.
Considering they brought back all 22 starters from last season, there’s precedent for leaning on last year’s information.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find two teams more apart in terms of quality and expectations.
Yes, the -12.5 is lofty, but the Falcons just lost by 26 to a team that went 4-11-1 last season. This is your defending Super Bowl champs, at home, rested, and with the best quarterback in history.
Don’t be scared off, bet the Bucs on Sunday to cover this big spread.
Enahance your winning in NFL betting or fantasy play through our quality stats. With your subscription you get...
Quality Stats
Our simple to use, ground-breaking Quality Stats power the winning game coverate at CHFF, which has produced an incredible record fo success analying teeams and agames for football bettors for over 20 years.
Game Capsule | + |
Prop Wagers | + |
Leader Boards | + |
Future Odds | + |
News | + |
Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.