Betting Against DUMB Teams Will Earn You SERIOUS Profits

Bill Enright

Here at Cold Hard Football Facts we often focus on the good teams.  The teams with winning records. A great Quarterback or a great passing Defense. We talk about teams that are legit Super Bowl Contenders or dominate in our 22 Quality Stats. Just last week we wrote about the importance of our Intelligent Index and how five of the last six Super Bowl winners finished in the Top 4 of this crucial statistic.  For the most part, we focus on the teams that win…


We’re not doing that in this article.

In this article.. we are focusing on the losers. The teams that suck. The bad teams. The DUMB teams.


Thanks to our Intelligence Index, one of the most dominant statistical calculations in predicting the winners and losers of football games, we not only know who the smartest teams are in the NFL, we also know the dumbest.

And betting AGAINST dumb teams make GREAT bets because dumb teams don’t win games, it’s really that simple. We went back into the Cold Hard Archives and dug up some stats from the last seven seasons.


Here’s what we found regarding teams that finished in the Bottom 5 of the Intelligence Index (AKA The 5 DUMBEST Teams in the NFL) from 2012-2018:


  • Straight Up: Just one out of 35 teams in the last seven years had a winning record when finishing in the bottom five of the Intelligence Index. It was the 2016 Houston Texans who finished 9-7.
  • Straight Up: Of those 35 teams, 28 of them won five games or less.
  • Of the 35 teams, NO team had a winning record against the spread.
  • Of the 35 teams, 24 had six or less wins against the spread.
  • 7 year average is 64% against the spread when betting AGAINST the bottom 5 teams on the Intelligence Index.
  • 7 year average is 75% straight up when betting AGAINST the bottom 5 teams on the Intelligence Index.
  • In four of the last seven seasons the Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, and Jacksonville Jaguars finished in the bottom five of the Intelligence Index.
  • Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, and Washington Redskins were the only other teams to finish as a Top 5 DUMBEST team more than once (but less than 4) since 2012.


Season

SU

Win Percentage

Percentage of Bets won SU when betting AGAINST Top 5 DUMBEST team

ATS

Win Percentage

Percentage of Bets Won ATS when betting AGAINST Top 5 DUMBEST team

2012

16-64

20%

80%

26-53-1

32%

68%

2013

24-56

30%

70%

27-51-2

34%

64%

2014

16-64

20%

80%

28-49-4

36%

64%

2015

23-57

28%

72%

29-48-3

37%

63%

2016

21-59

26%

74%

32-49-1

40%

60%

2017

22-58

27%

73%

26-50-4

34%

66%

2018

22-58

27%

73%

30-47-3

38%

62%

Total:

144-416

25%

75%

198-347-18

36%

64%

The above chart depicts the Straight Up (SU) record, SU win percentage and the win percentage if betting AGAINST all five of the NFL’s dumbest teams for each season from 2012-2018.  The average is 75% as we stated previously with some seasons (2012 and 2014) showing absolute domination with an 80% SU record when betting against a Top 5 DUMBEST team.


The chart also shows the Against The Spread (ATS) record, ATS win percentage and the ATS win percentage if betting AGAINST all five of the NFL’s dumbest teams since 2011.


In order to be profitable, a bettor needs to be above the 52% win threshold. Anything lower puts a bettor in the red. Anything above 52% is considered a win or profitable. Anything above 57% and you’re in the pro gambler realm. But a 64% against the spread average across seven seasons without ever dipping below 60%? That’s unheard of to the general public and even to the knowledgeable football gambler. But not to the Cold Hard Football Facts members. Stats like this shouldn’t surprise our members, they should be accustomed to how dominant the Quality Stats truly are when it comes to predicting the winners and losers of football games because we’ve been proving it for close to two decades.

Here at Cold Hard Football Facts we are not very fond of taking action on every single game. In fact we think that’s foolish, silly, asinine. We carefully pick and choose which games to place a wager and rely solely on what the stats tell us. Betting AGAINST the five dumbest teams in the NFL will win 64% of your bets Against the Spread and 75% of your bets Straight Up. That’s real, factual data.  Just using that method alone and you’ll turn in some serious profit in 2019!


Have fun. Good luck. Win some money!