Did your team have a good draft last weekend? Damned if we know. Nobody does. At least not yet.

 

But here’s what we do know: There’s something of a fire triangle to every so-called “dynasty” in NFL history – and if your team is going to somehow join that elite list, it’s going to do it through the draft.

 

We've been studying the draft and the dynasties throughout NFL history and found that all these great teams have a certain “dynasty fire triangle” of three things in common:

It’s very simplistic, we realize. But it’s no less true. If you remove any one aspect of this dynasty triangle – management, coach or quarterback – then the dynasty is snuffed out like a fire denied heat, fuel or oxygen.

 

Ownerships in the NFL change about as often as the crowned heads of England. Coaches and general managers come and go with far more frequency, but their movement is downright glacial compared with the turnover of players that mark teams from year to year. Coaches aren't drafted out of the college ranks by NFL teams each April, for example.

 

So the acquisition of playing talent is the true wild card in the dynasty triangle, which brings us around to the draft and the critical role it plays in dynasty-building.

 

Put most simply, dynasties are forged in the draft. Sure, a team might find a player here or there in a trade or in free agency who makes great contributions. But the foundations for every dynasty are laid down in the draft.

 

In fact, if you look at EVERY dynasty in NFL history, you’ll find that their rise in each and every case was preceded by two or three incredible drafts that included a franchise quarterback. Conversely, each and every dynasty faded from existence as the quarterback aged and the quality of the talent they harvested in the drafts declined.

 

All of which helps explain the enthusiasm with which football fans follow the draft these days. A watershed draft can turn a lousy team (Detroit, Cleveland) into a competitor. It can also reinvigorate a “dynasty” that may be ready to falter (New England) or lift a powerhouse (Pittsburgh, Indy) up to the level of dynastic status.

 

So a lot rides in the balance, including football history itself, when the commissioner reads off those names each year.

 

We looked back at the draft history of each team generally recognized as a “dynasty” and found some pretty consistent patterns of success and consistent patterns of decline. Makes sense: teams can only have so many historic drafts in a row before the law of averages takes over. But it’s an interesting exercise just the same.

 

 

Green Bay was unusual by the standards of other great successful organizations in that most of the talent in the dynasty triangle preceded the arrival of the coach.

 

The pivotal draft came in 1956, three years before Lombardi’s arrival, when the Packers acquired Bart Starr (17th round), Hall of Fame right tackle Forrest Gregg (2nd) and the other anchor of the dynastic offensive line,  left tackle Bob Skoronski (5th), a player Starr himself told CHFF belongs in the Hall of Fame.

 

The harvest continued in 1957, when Green Bay grabbed Paul Hornung (No. 1 overall). The bounty continued in stunning fashion in 1958, when the Packers  acquired Hornung’s HOF backfield mate, Jim Taylor (2nd), the anchor of their incredible defense, MLB Ray Nitschke (3rd) and famous guard Jerry Kramer (4th).

 

Wow, what drafts.

 

That’s five Hall of Famers in a period of three drafts – all before Lombardi arrived on the scene and molded a rag-tag collection of talent in the powerhouse of the 1960s.

 

Of the 11 Hall of Famers who played for Lombardi, seven were acquired in the draft and four were grabbed in trades or as free agents (Henry Jordan, Emlen Tunnell, Willie Davis, Willie Wood). Interestingly, Lombardi’s Packers drafted only one Hall of Famer, Herb Adderley, a first-round pick in 1961. The other six HOF draftees were all on the roster when he arrived in 1959.

 

But either way, the foundation of the Packers dynasty – from Starr to Taylor to Gregg to Nitschke – were all products of a prolific series of drafts in the late 1950s, in the years that immediately preceded the rise of the dynasty.

 

The dynasty faded as did the quality of the drafts: the Packers have drafted just one Hall of Famer (James Lofton in 1978) since Lombardi selected Herb Adderley in 1961.

 

Key selections from Green Bay’s dynasty-building drafts (HOFers in bold)

1953 – Jim Ringo, C, Syracuse, 7th round

1954 – Max McGee, WR, Tulane, 5th

1956 – Forrest Gregg, T, SMU, 2nd

1956 – Bob Skoronski, T, Indiana, 5th

1956 – Bart Starr, QB, Alabama, 17th

1957 – Paul Hornung, RB, Notre Dame, 1st (No. 1 overall)

1958 – Jim Taylor, FB, LSU, 2nd

1958 – Ray Nitschke, LB, Illinois, 3rd

1958 – Jerry Kramer, G, Idaho, 4th

1959 – Boyd Dowler, FL, Colorado, 3rd

1961 – Herb Adderley, DB, Michigan State, 1st

1961 – Elijah Pitts, RB, Philander Smith, 13th

1963 – Dave Robinson, LB< Penn State, 1st

1963 – Marv Flemming, TE, Utah, 11th

1964 – Ken Bowman, C, Wisconsin, 8th

1964 – Bill Curry (drafted as LB), G, Tech, 20th

 

The Steelers of the 1970s are the classic example of a dynasty built through the draft.

 

The organization was pretty much a joke from its foundation in 1933 through 1969 – but then lovable-loser owner Art Rooney made the critical decision to hire Paul Brown disciple Chuck Noll as his head coach.

 

An amiable owner now had a great coach, and an incredible – actually, an unprecedented – wave of draft success followed from 1969 to 1974. The rise of the Steel Curtain dynasty rose with metronome-like predictability in the wake of these drafts.

 

Noll’s first draft in 1969 yielded two of the anchors of the Steel Curtain, Joe Green and L.C. Greenwood. Pittsburgh grabbed a franchise quarterback in Terry Bradshaw, and another Hall of Fame Steel Curtain stalwart, Mel Blount, in 1970.

 

The 1971 draft was simply incredibly, yielding four Steel Curtain starters in the space of a single weekend, from future Hall of Fame linebacker Jack Ham in the second round to hidden gem Mike Wagner in the 11th. In between they grabbed two members of the front four, Dwight White in the fourth round and Ernie Holmes in the eighth.

 

The 1972 draft produced franchise running back Franco Harris. Not so coincidentally, the Steelers won the first postseason game in team history that year. Harris played a notable role in that watershed moment, hauling in a wildly deflected pass for a game-winning TD in what we now know as the “Immaculate Reception.”

 

Noll & Co. were not done. They still had in front of them the single greatest draft in NFL history, Pittsburgh’s Class of 1974, which produced four Hall of Famers in the space of five picks: Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster. Not to coincidentally, the Steelers won their first Super Bowl that year, along with three others over the next five seasons.

 

The dynasty faded as did the quality of the drafts. Like the Packers before them, the Steelers have selected just a single Hall of Famer since their dynastic days, that is, since grabbing Webster in the fifth round of the 1974 draft: Rod Woodson in the first round of the 1987 draft.

 

Of course, the drafting of a potential HOF quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger in the first round in 2004, proved the catalyst to another period of multi-championship success here in the 21st century. Whether it turns into a period of "dynastic" success depends upon Pittsburgh's success in its most recent drafts.

 

1969 – Joe Greene, DT, North Texas, 1st

1969 – L.C. Green Wood, DE, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 10th

1970 – Terry Bradshaw, QB, Louisiana Tech, 1st (No. 1 overall)

1970 – Mel Blount, DB, Southern, 3rd

1971 – Jack Ham, LB, Penn State, 2nd

1971 – Dwight White, DE, Texas A&M-Commerce, 4th

1971 – Ernie Holmes, DT, Texas Southern, 8th

1971 – Mike Wagner, S, Western Illinois, 11th

1972 – Franco Harris, RB, Penn State, 1st

1974 – Lynn Swann, WR, USC, 1st

1974 – Jack Lambert, LB, Kent State, 2nd

1974 – John Stallworth, WR, Alabama A&M, 4th

1974 – Mike Webster, C, Wisconsin, 5th

 

No team in history enjoyed more consistent success over a longer period than the 49ers dynasty of the 1980s and into the 1990s. From 1981 to 1998, San Francisco posted double-digit victories every year but the strike-shortened season of 1982. They won five Super Bowls in that period.

 

And it all began, as it so often does, with the arrival of coach and quarterback in a brief period of time. Bill Walsh took over as coach in 1979. His third draft pick was, of course, Joe Montana. Walsh also dug up a battery-mate for Montana late in the draft, grabbing Pro Bowl receiver Dwight Clark with a 10th-round pick.

 

The two Pro Bowlers would team up for the iconic touchdown in the 1981 NFC title game that marked the death of one great winner – Dallas – and the birth of another.

 

But the two players did not do it alone. In fact, the signature draft of the San Francisco dynasty probably came in 1981 when the 49ers drafted 3/4ths of their starting secondary that year and a group of perennial Pro Bowlers – a group led, of course, by first-round pick Ronnie Lott, an all-purpose Hall of Fame defensive back who stands among the best ever at his position. (The 49ers also acquired Hall of Fame defensive end Fred Dean in free agency before the 1981 season.)

 

It’s no coincidence that the organization won its very first Super Bowl in that 1981 season – much like the Steelers won their very first Super Bowl in the wake of its 1974 draft.

 

Lott inspired a powerhouse San Francisco defense in that Super Bowl-winning 1981 season. Montana and the 49ers offense got all the headlines, but as loyal Cold, Hard Football Facts readers know, the defense was the true foundation of the 49ers dynasty. During the Lott Decade (1981-90) San Francisco ranked in the top four in scoring defense in eight of 10 seasons. They won four Super Bowls in this decade, and a fifth in 1994. In the 16-straight 10-win seasons from 1983 to 1998, the San Francisco defense never surrendered more than 300 points in a season.

 

The draft hits kept coming: Bubba Paris, an anchor of the offensive line throughout the glory years, in 1982; all-purpose RB Roger Craig was drafted in 1983 and became the first 1,000/1,000 man in 1986; and, of course, the 49ers harvested a risky first-round pick in Jerry Rice out of tiny Mississippi Valley State in the first round of the 1985 draft. That pick worked out pretty well.

 

1976 – Randy Cross, G, UCLA, 2nd

1978 – Dan Bunz, LB, Long Beach State, 1st

1979 – Joe Montana, QB, Notre Dame, 3rd

1979 – Dwight Clark, WR, Clemson, 10th

1980 – Keena Turner, LB, Purdue, 2nd (selected by Miami then traded)

1981 – Ronnie Lott, DB, USC, 1st

1981 – Eric Wright, DB, Missouri, 2nd

1981 – Carlton Williamson, DB, Pittsburgh, 3rd

1982 – Bubba Parris, T, Michigan, 2nd

1983 – Roger Craig, RB, Nebraska, 2nd

1985 – Jerry Rice, WR, Mississippi Valley State, 1st

1986 – Tom Ratham, RB, Nebraska, 3rd

1986 – Tim McKyer, DB, Texas-Arlington, 3rd

1986 – John Taylor, WR, Delaware State, 3rd

1986 – Charles Haley, DE, James Madison, 4th

 

The Cowboys were the definitive team of the 1990s, winning championships in 1992, 1993 and 1995.

 

It came together, of course, in classic fashion: a sudden influx of iconic talent, followed by a single signature draft that left a long string of victories and titles in its wake.

 

For the Cowboys, it began with the 1988 draft, in which they picked up Miami WR Michael Irvin and UCLA linebacker Ken Norton with their top two picks. Irvin, of course, went on to a Hall of Fame career. Norton spent six years with the Cowboys – five as a full-time starter – that included the team’s first two titles of the decade. (Norton, by the way, is now the linebackers coach for USC, and three of his LBs, his entire starting corps from last season, were taken in the first 38 picks of the draft this weekend).

 

Another stellar draft followed in 1989, when the top three were Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman, longtime starting fullback Daryl “Moose” Johnston and Mark Stepnoski, a five-time Pro Bowler who centered one of the most powerful offensive lines of recent memory.

 

The 1990 draft merely yielded the all-time leading rusher in Emmitt Smith.

 

But it was the incredible 1991 draft that really pushed the team over the hump: No. 1 overall pick Russell Maryland anchored the DL for five years, including all three championship seasons; wideout Alvin Harper gave the Cowboys two of the largest and most physical receivers in the game; Erik Williams added another Pro Bowl earth mover to the offensive line; seventh-rounder Leon Lett provided another stud in the DL and played in two Pro Bowls and three Super Bowls; and, finally, the team’s last pick, in the 12th round, yielded Super Bowl XXX MVP Larry Brown.

 

The great draft class produced immediate results: the Cowboys won 11 games in the 1991 season that followed – the organization’s most victories since 1983. And, of course, they won three of four Super Bowls over the four years that followed.

 

Like every other dynasty, the wins ended when the draft dried up. Just look at the team’s top picks. The team went without a No. 1 in both 1995 and 1996, while its top picks from 1995 to 1999 were the immortal Sherman Williams, Kavika Pittman, David LaFleur, Greg Ellis and Ebenezer Ekuban. Not exactly the Irvin-Aikman-Smith No. 1s of 1988 to 1990, were they?

 

1988 – Michael Irvin, WR, Miami, 1st

1988 – Ken Norton, LB, UCLA, 2nd

1989 – Troy Aikman, QB, UCLA, 1st (No. 1 overall)

1989 – Daryl Johnston, RB, Syracuse, 2nd

1989 – Mark Stepnoski, C, Pitt, 3rd

1990 – Emmitt Smith, RB, Florida, 1st

1991 – Russell Maryland, DT, Miami, 1st (No. 1 overall)

1991 – Alvin Harper, WR, Tennessee, 1st

1991 – Erik Williams, T, Central State, 3rd

1991 – Leon Lett, DE, Emporia State, 7th

1991 – Larry Brown, CB, TCU, 12th

1992 – Darren Woodson, DB, Arizona State, 2nd

1993 – Ron Stone, T, Boston College, 4th

1993 – Brock Marion, DB, Nevada-Reno, 7th

1994 – Larry Allen, T, Sonoma State, 2nd

 

New England, more so than any other “dynastic” team, found key contributors in free agency and late in the draft, along with finding role players who contributed key singular moments. It's probably symptomatic of a team that's the first so-called "dynasty" of the free-agency/salary-cap era. It's also sympomatic of the fact that drafts these days include a mere seven rounds, compared with as many as 30 rounds in previous decades.

 

But the building-block players of the first 21st-century juggernaut were found in the draft, several of whom – as was the case with Lombardi’s Packers – were fortuitously on the scene when the new coach, in this case Bill Belichick, arrived in 2000, Tedy Bruschi and Kevin Faulk most notably.

 

But Belichick left his imprint immediately with his first draft. For him, it began with what’s probably the greatest “value” selection in NFL history, at least the greatest since Bart Starr: Tom Brady in the sixth round of 2000.

 

He was the only star in that draft, and it’s no coincidence that the victories and titles began to accumulate when this future HOFer took over the offense in 2001. He also got help from those role players of the 2000 draft: Antwan Harris returned a blocked kick for what proved to be the game-winning touchdown in the 2001 AFC title game, while J.R. Redmond caught three straight passes in the game-winning drive of Super Bowl XXXI – and then both were hardly ever heard from again.

 

The 2001 draft, the one that immediately preceded the frst Super Bowl, produced stalwarts on each side of the line, DT/DE Richard Seymouth with the No. 6 overall pick, and left tackle Matt Light in the second round.

 

The 2002 draft produced several unheralded by highly effective picks in the role-playing New England system, including pass-rush specialist DE Jarvis Green, WR David Givens and Super Bowl XXXIX MVP wideout Deion Branch.

 

It was no coincidence that Belichick fielded his greatest defensive club – and then won consecutive Super Bowls – in the wake of the 2003 draft that produced stalwart DT Ty Warren, hard-hitting (when he played) safety Eugene Wilson and game-breaking CB Asante Samuel. The Patriots found their next defensive gem with NT Vince Wilfork in the first round of the 2004 draft and won the Super Bowl again.

 

A defensive drought soon followed, though, with bad drafts, especially on defense, from 2005 to 2007. In a sport where great and bad drafts yield immediate, and respective, results, it’s no coincidence that defensive implosions killed New England’s chances of Super Bowl repeats in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

 

The outcome of the promising 2008 draft, and the defensive resources poured into the 2009 draft, will go a long way toward determining if the Patriots dynasty continues, or if it withers and dies – like all those that have come before it – on the heels of bad drafts.

 

1996 – Lawyer Milloy, S, Washington, 2nd

1996 – Tedy Bruschi, LB, Arizona, 3rd

1999 – Kevin Faulk, RB, LSU, 2nd

2000 – Tom Brady, QB, Michigan, 6th

2001 – Richard Seymour, DL, Georgia, 1st

2001 – Matt Light, OT, Purdue, 2nd

2002 – Deion Branch, WR, Louisville, 2nd

2003 – Ty Warren, DE, Texas A&M, 1st

2003 – Asante Samuel, CB, Central Florida, 4th

2004 – Vince Wilfork, NT, Miami, 1st