Remember the big storyline last year at this time?

It was all about the "blueprint" – who had the "blueprint" to topple the undefeated Patriots.

 

Forget, for a moment, that blueprints are meant to build towering structures, not tear them down. But the metaphor seemed to work.

 

We even jumped on the blueprint bandwagon, with the sousaphone and comically disjointed metaphors our instruments of choice. And, of course, our blueprint was better than all the others: we virtually nailed the exact way the Giants could beat the Patriots, right down to the exact number of negative pass plays they needed to force to win the game.

 

Not that we expected a New York victory, mind you. We didn't. But we had the blueprint. We also had a severe case of syphilis, so take our possessions for what their worth.

 

There's not a lot of talk about blueprints this year. Instead, the big storyline from our perspective is the Red Scare that pervades football-dom right now: the fear that 1) a pathetic 9-7 Cardinals team will emerge from the NFL's faulty playoff system as champs, and that 2) the crowning moment will come against one of the league's most storied franchises. 

 

We're here today to admit that we're no longer scared of this possibility. We're here to admit that we have the serenity to accept things we cannot change and the courage to ... well, you probably know the rest of that little speech as well as we do.

 

If the past few years have shown us anything, it's that the regular season no longer matters. It's simply a 16-game preseason after which 12 teams are sent along to the next stage, regardless of whether they're actually the 12 best teams.

 

The hot team in January wins the Super Bowl. Simple enough. After much kvetching – much of it to the dismay of you, our once-loyal Trolls – we've come to accept the situation for what it is. The play of the past month is all that matters – everything before it is dust in the wind.

 

So as we look at the pivotal match-ups in a couple key areas, we put particular emphasis on the postseason trends. But first, the singular secret to Arizona's success ...

 

The Arizona offense was so unbalanced during the regular season it could have served as governor of Illinois.

 

This imbalance had grave results:

Somebody got the memo in the postseason. Here in the playoffs, Arizona has actually run the ball more often than its passed it: 100 rush attempts in three games to just 92 pass attempts. The results speak for themselves: the Cardinals are 3-0 over this run, have bested three straight Quality Teams for what might be the first time in franchise history and are playing in their first Super Bowl.

 

If they can maintain their offensive balance in the Super Bowl, it will make for one very interesting game.

 

Even in the regular season this was a battle that went Arizona's way.

 

The Steelers were a borderline disaster on the offensive line, barely able to run the ball effectively (3.68 YPA, 29th), while allowing defenders to treat Ben Roethlisberger like a Whack-A-Mole at the Allegheny County Fair (Pittsburgh was 28th in the number of negative pass plays it suffered on offense).

 

The Cardinals, meanwhile, were a middle-of-the-road group of Defensive Hogs and were fairly effective against the run – holding opponents to 3.96 YPA on the ground and forcing opponents into negative pass plays on 8 percent of snaps.

 

Pittsburgh has continued to struggle running the ball here in the playoffs, averaging a woeful 3.1 YPA in their two playoff games. Arizona's defense, meanwhile, has held all three playoff opponents below 100 yards rushing, though it has allowed them 4.1 YPA on the ground – slightly above their regular-season average.

 

More importantly, the Cardinals are suddenly forcing opponents into a sizable number of negative pass plays (sacks and INTs) in the playoffs: 15 in 128 dropbacks (11.7%).

 

That's championship caliber football – in fact, it's quite similar to what the Giants did when they rose from statistical anonymity last year in the postseason – and it's not good news for a Steelers team that had trouble keeping its quarterback clean all year and that has suffered five sacks in 65 dropbacks (7.7%) here in the playoffs.

 

Verdict: A slim advantage for Arizona in the regular season has grown into a great advantage for Arizona in the postseason.

 

The Steelers dominate this battle against anybody, and the Cardinals are no exception.

 

As we've noted many times, the Steelers were No. 1 across the board in our Defensive Hog Index this year and, as we've also noted many times, teams with the better defensive front have won 19 of the last 21 playoff games.

 

They've been equally as dominating in the playoffs, as evidenced by the fact that they've surrendered just 88 rushing yards on 26 attempts (2.4 YPA), and have forced 11 negative pass plays in just 72 dropbacks – in other words, a whopping 15.3 percent of dropbacks against Pittsburgh's mighty defense have ended in a sack or INT.

 

That's some good hooch.

 

The Cardinals counter with a group of Offensive Hogs that, in the regular season, was fairly good at keeping their quarterback clean (6.5 percent negative pass plays) and was fairly good on third downs, but that was a mere 31st in average per attempt on the ground.

 

Arizona has not fared much better on the ground in the playoffs, averaging just 3.3 YPA. Though, as we pointed out above, it's their commitment to the run that has improved. The Cardinals, however, are slightly better protecting quarterback here in the playoffs than they were in the regular season – Arizona has suffered just 5 negative pass plays in 95 dropbacks (5.3%).

 

The Cardinals will have difficulty running the football effectively, but they may have the horses up front to keep their big man clean, even in the face of Pittsburgh's world-class defensive front.

 

The verdict: An advantage for Pittsburgh in the regular season remains a slight advantage in the postseason.

 

This is really the marquee statistical battle of the game: the Cardinals enter the game with a galaxy of big stars in the passing game: Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner, the second most effective postseason passer in history.

 

The Steelers counter with a unit that ranked second in Defensive Passer Rating (63.4) while surrendering just 12 TD passes all year. In the playoffs, the Steelers have been fairly consistent, with a 64.2 Defensive Passer Rating.

 

Arizona's passing attack, however, has put the hammer down in its three postseason games, with eight TD passes, 66.3 completion percentage and a stunning 112.1 passer rating. The way with which Warner & Co. so casually disposed of Philadelphia and its fifth-ranked pass defense in the NFC title game as if it were a Twinkie wrapper should give pause to even the most punishing of pass defenses. 

 

Verdict: A small advantage for Pittsburgh in the regular season has swung to become a small advantage for Arizona in the postseason.

 

The Cold, Hard Football Facts passion for Big Ben knows no bounds. We've repeatedly sung his praises even when others thought him overrated. His battery-mate Hines Ward, meanwhile, would earn a spot from us on the Top 10 list of greatest Steelers ever if we put one together tomorrow.

 

Neither is flashy, but they're winners and playmakers extraordinaire. From a purely statistical point of view, this assessment has been borne out here in the playoffs: Roethlisberger has completed just 55 percent of his passes for 400 yards, two TDs and a solid but unspectacular 89.3 passer rating. Most importantly, he's kept the ball out off the hands of the opposition, with zero picks in 60 attempts – no small feat considering one of his opponents in the playoffs was Baltimore – and his Steelers have won both games.

 

The Arizona pass defense, meanwhile, has given us the single greatest statistical storyline of the 2008-09 playoffs: they could stop nobody through the air in the playoffs, as evidenced by their 96.9 Defensive Passer Rating (30th).

 

They've been very, very impressive here in the postseason, as evidenced by the eight postseason interceptions and 66.8 Defensive Passer Rating against a fairly good cast of passers – Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan, Big Game Gunslinger Jake Delhomme and Perpetual Bridesmaid Donovan McNabb.

 

Verdict: A small advantage for Pittsburgh in the regular season has swung to become a small advantage for Arizona in the postseason.

 

All the big-picture indicators are in Pittsburgh's favor.

 

ONE - Pittsburgh has long been a Cold, Hard Football Facts favorite because it's a winning program with great leadership. Arizona has long been a Cold, Hard Football Facts punching bag because it's been a losing program with lousy leadership.

 

TWO - Big Ben has long been a Cold, Hard Football Facts favorite because he wins – and his team wins because he typically makes winning plays.

 

THREE - Pittsburgh has dominated our Defensive Hog Index – and teams that dominate our Defensive Hog Index, as you all know by now, have won 19 of 21 playoff games over the past two years.

 

FOUR - Pittsburgh proved itself more formidable in the maelstrom of regular-season football, winning 12 of its 16 games. The Cardinals were blown out more often than cheap Chinese tires.

 

In other words, we like the Steelers. And we certainly wouldn't mortgage the house on Arizona (unless we're getting one of those sweetheart deals Sen. Chris Dodd received).

 

But if being hot right now is all that matters, we figure we'll roll with the hot hand – with the team that's clearly distinguished itself from the club that played so unimpressively in its 9-7 regular-season. We're also banking on the fact that Arizona runs the ball at least 25 times against a brutal Pittsburgh defense ... but let's just imagine that Ken Whisenhunt and company have seen the same trends on film that we've seen on the stat sheets.

 

We wouldn't have given past Arizona coaches the benefit of the doubt.