You would think an indicator that has identified playoff winners correctly better than 90 percent of the time over the past two years would earn a little more love from the Trolls.

 

But some of them are so eager to dispute the almighty power of the Cold, Hard Football Facts that they pounced on us with angry emails about the Defensive Hog Index simply because the No. 2 team on the Defensive Hog Index – the Eagles – lost to a team that was merely mediocre this year. Arizona placed 17th this year.

 

The embarrassing defeat for the DHI (not to mention the embarrassing defeat for the NFL's current playoff system) dropped the indicator to 19-2 picking playoff games over the past two years. Sorry.

 

Here’s a typical response we received after the Eagles-Cardinals game from your average emotionally stable CHFF reader:

 

 

Thanks, mom.

 

Actually, it was some guy named Kenyon. But whatever.

 

If Pittsburgh, an early 7-point favorite over Arizona, holds serve, the Defensive Hog Index will have gone 10-1 each of the past two years picking playoff winners. More importantly, the team that finished the year No. 1 on the DHI each of the past two years will have won each of the past two Super Bowls. (The DHI blew the AFC title game last year, when No. 7 New England beat No. 5 San Diego, and it blew the NFC title game this year.

 

It’s about the only source of light in the mixed-up crazy statistical world that has defined the playoffs over the past two years.

 

But hey, what do you expect from a system that rewards teams with inferior records home-field advantage in 30 percent of playoff games.

 

The confusion of the system is evident by the fact that Vegas favorites and home teams – two typically reliable indicators of victory – are both .500 or worse over the past two postseasons.

 

The rest of our indicators have not performed nearly as well as the Defensive Hog Index. But it’s rather remarkable – not to mention the sign of the postseason times – that a single Quality Stat typically performs as well or better (in most cases) than traditional favorites.

 

Here's how our Quality Stats stack up over the past two postseasons, as we prepare to head into "Super" Bowl XLIII.

 

Defensive Hog Index – 19-2

Scoreability – 11-10

Relativity – 11-10

Home teams – 10-10

Vegas favorites 10-11

Big Play Index – 10-11

Quality Stats average – 10-11

Passing Yards Per Attempt – 10-11

Defensive Passer Rating – 9-12

Bendability – 8-13

Offensive Hog Index – 7-13