Anyone who has dabbled in gambling on the NFL (which we do not condone, of course) knows that it’s a tough racket. Leads can be extended or squandered at a rapid pace, and potential winning bets can quickly turn into losers.

 

Week 2 provided several cases in point. If the halftime scores for each of the 15 games had been final scores, our picks would have gone a sparkling 14-0-1 against the spread. That’s right – after 30 minutes of play, our favorites were already covering and our underdogs were either staying within the number or winning outright.

 

Alas, the teams decided to play the second halves in all of those games, and our football fortunes turned a bit. In the end, we went 9-5-1 against the spread and 9-6 straight up. For the year, we're 17-14 straight up and a not-to-be-ashamed-of 16-14-1 ATS.

 

In Week 3, we look to help you degenerates turn an even bigger profit ... spiritually, of course, as our picks are for recreational purposes only:

The Chiefs will be starting their third different quarterback in as many weeks, casting their lot with Tyler Thigpen, a second-year player out of Coastal Carolina. The other side of the ball isn’t any more promising, as the Kansas City defense just surrendered 300 rushing yards to the Raiders. Atlanta’s Michael Turner could run wild.  

 

Amid rumors that coach Lane Kiffin could be fired at any moment, the Raiders make the cross-country trek to Buffalo. Through two weeks, the Bills look like a top-tier team, having knocked off a pair of playoff participants from last year in the Seahawks and Jaguars. The roll should continue against an Oakland squad dealing with injuries and insubordination.

 

Because Hurricane Ike forced postponement of their game against Baltimore last week, the Texans have had extra time to prepare for the team that used to call Houston home. The Titans, meanwhile, have been defensively dominant in their two wins, allowing only one touchdown in each of them. Points will probably be at a premium, but Tennessee will find a way to remain alone atop the AFC South.

 

The defending champs are the biggest favorite on the board in Week 3, having throttled their first two opponents by a combined differential of 37 points. That mark is the best in the league, and it only figures to increase against the lowly Bengals. What was once a high-flying Cincinnati offense currently ranks dead last in yards per play (a dreadful 3.5).

 

With three touchdown passes to Anquan Boldin last week, the reborn Kurt Warner has the Cardinals soaring. Through two games, he leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt (10.33), but now faces a Redskins defense that ranks sixth in Defensive Passer Rating. Even so, the Cardinals should seize this opportunity to start a season 3-0 for the first time since 1975 – when old-man Warner was 4.

 

After opening as underdogs last week, the Patriots return to the familiar role of double-digit favorites. Matt Cassel makes his second start at quarterback and gets to test a Dolphins defense that is allowing nearly 12 yards per passing attempt, easily the worst in the league. New England will likely open up the playbook and finally crack the 20-point plateau.

 

Rookie running back Matt Forte has been the offense for the Bears so far, averaging 127 yards from scrimmage in his first two games. That’s almost more production than QB Kyle Orton, who hasn’t surpassed 150 yards through the air and is still looking for his first touchdown pass. Benefiting from better offensive balance, Tampa Bay could make Brian Griese a winner in his return to Chicago.

 

Wideout Steve Smith returns from his two-game suspension and joins a Panthers team that has pulled out dramatic fourth-quarter wins in back-to-back weeks. The Vikings have been on the other side of the equation, losing each of their games by less than a touchdown. The quarterback change to Gus Frerotte, who was 2-0 as Minnesota’s starter in 2003, may provide a spark.

 

The Rams have looked truly inept in being outscored 79-16. Their point differential (-63) exceeds that of the second-worst team, Detroit (-36), by nearly four touchdowns. The 0-2 Seahawks haven’t been very impressive either, but the additions of Koren Robinson and Keary Colbert at receiver should give the offense enough punch to subdue St. Lou.

Fired after two years as offensive coordinator with the Lions, Mike Martz is now working his magic on the San Francisco sideline. In Week 2’s overtime win against Seattle, 49ers quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan eclipsed 300 yards passing for the first time in his career. Against Detroit’s porous defense, expect more strong numbers – and a few trick plays from a vengeful Martz.

 

The Saints have surrendered the fifth-most passing yards per game, and now they must try to stop one of the NFL’s best aerial attacks. Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler leads the league in passing yards, while wideout Brandon Marshall is coming off an 18-catch performance. Riding the momentum of the controversial win over division-rival San Diego, Denver should lift its record to 3-0.

 

On Monday night, Philly’s DeSean Jackson earned his place in infamy by discarding the ball before crossing the goal line on a sure touchdown pass. Now, he is poised to become the first player in league history to start his career with more than 100 yards receiving in three straight games. Since both teams have been stout against the run, passing proficiency could well decide bragging rights in the state of Pennsylvania – and Philly can ill-afford to fall to 1-2 in the tough NFC East.

 

Had the Colts not rallied from a 15-0 deficit against Minnesota, this would have been a matchup of winless teams. Both have been plagued by injuries on the offensive line, and neither has reached 100 yards rushing in a game yet. The probable returns of center Jeff Saturday and tight end Dallas Clark bode well for Indy.

 

After racking up offensive numbers last season, the Browns have scored just 16 points through two games. They must now try to get well against the Ravens, who have the league’s best Defensive Passer Rating – granted, they’ve played just one game, but it's consistent with their traditional defensive success. Cleveland won both of the meetings in 2007, including an overtime victory at Baltimore, but the rested Ravens should be able to protect their home turf this time around.

 

The marquee matchup of the week pits this pair of undefeated NFC powers under the Sunday night lights. The Cowboys have been especially prolific on offense, gaining more yards per play (7.41) than any team in the league. Although the Packers rank fourth in that category, they are nearly a full yard behind (6.47) … and probably don’t have the firepower to win a shootout.

Losing on the final play in Week 1 and because of a blown call in Week 2, the Chargers already feel a sense of desperation. Their total of 62 points scored is second only to Denver in the AFC, but they have allowed 65. The formidable defense of the Jets should keep this game within reach, but San Diego won’t be denied for a third time.