Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Power Rankings: Week 16 2007

By Jonathan Comey

Cold, Hard Football Facts power-lifter

If the Jaguars (vs. Raiders) and Titans (vs. Jets) win their respective home games this Sunday, they'll help make NFL history.

With those two wins – both expected – the 2007 AFC South will become the best division of all time, based upon combined record (the NFL went to a divisional format in 1967).

The Colts lead the way at 12-2, Jacksonville is sailing along at 10-4, and Tennessee (8-6) and Houston (7-7) have both exceeded expectations. Three of the four are in our Dominant Dozen, with Houston a respectable No. 17.

Not bad for a group that was supposed to be Indianapolis and the Three Dwarves.

The best-ever division, based upon regular-season winning percentage, was the 1975 AFC Central. Cleveland did its best to ruin the party at 3-11, but Pittsburgh (12-2), Cincinnati (11-3) and Houston (10-4) were all top notch teams.

The 1975 AFC Central went 36-20 (.643) through the full 14-game season of that era. Right now the 2007 AFC South is 37-19 (.661).

But the AFC South has three division games left, meaning the group is guaranteed a 3-3 communal record there (barring a rare tie). So with these expected wins by the Jaguars and Titans this week, the South-side crew will be locked into a 42-22 (.656) record this year, edging out the .643 of the 1975 AFC Central.

Certainly the AFC South showed how strong it was this past week with three road wins and a 4-0 record out of the division. The South, being just six years old, doesn’t really have a prevailing theme, except for Indianapolis dominating – and the Colts have done so again this year. They’re 4-0 in the division pending home games with Tennessee and Houston in which they'll be favored.

On to the rankings, a big, beefy AFC East sandwich of 30 NFL teams stuffed between New England and Miami.

THE DOMINANT DOZEN

1. NEW ENGLAND (14-0, previous rank: 1)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 5-0, +17.4 PPG
Last week: Adalius Thomas registered 9 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two forced fumbles in an anticlimactic 20-10 home win over the Jets.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Patriots tailbacks (Maroney, Morris and Faulk) have 290 carries for 1,255 yards, 77 first downs and 4.32 YPA. Putting those numbers into perspective, San Diego's great LaDainian Tomlinson has 280 carries for 1,311 yards, 65 first downs and 4.68 YPA.
Next: vs. Miami. The Dolphins come in red-hot, riding a torrid one-game win streak, but New England is still a slim (21.5-point) favorite. With a victory, the 2006-07 Patriots will tie the 2003-04 Patriots for longest regular-season win streak in NFL history (18). New England's last loss? Last year, 21-zip, at Miami.

2. INDIANAPOLIS (12-2, previous rank: 3)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 4-2, +6.7 PPG
Last week: In Peyton Manning’s first game in Oakland, the Colts needed a late rally to win 21-14.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: RB Joseph Addai has quietly been ineffective for a month-and-a-half now; in his last six games he has 102 carries for 315 yards and 3.09 YPA. In his first eight games, he had 149 carries for 704 yards and 4.72 YPA.
Next: vs. Houston. Indy is 10-1 lifetime against the Texans, with an average scoring differential of +13.3 PPG.

3. GREEN BAY (12-2, previous rank: 4)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 4-1, +12.0 PPG
Last week: The Packers lost the turnover battle 3-2 and the yardage battle 364-279, yet still beat St. Louis, 33-14, on the road.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Green Bay boasts 33 pass plays of 25+ yards, second to New England (35), and right in front of Fantastic Four members Dallas (31) and Indianapolis (30).
Next: at Chicago. One more win and the Packers will have a lucky 13 – they’ve been to the championship game each time they’ve won 13 games in franchise history (1962, 1996, 1997), with two titles (1962, 1996).

4. DALLAS (12-2, previous rank: 2)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 4-1, +4.0 PPG
Last week: Dallas completed only four passes to wide receivers in a 10-6 loss to Philly.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Much-ballyhooed acquisition Tank Johnson has just six tackles and one sack in six games as a Cowboy.
Next: at Carolina. The Cowboys are 6-1 all-time against the Panthers in the regular season, but have lost both playoff meetings (1996, 2003).

5. JACKSONVILLE (10-4, previous rank: 6)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 4-3, +0.3 PPG
Last week: Jacksonville rolled up 421 yards and committed just one penalty in their 29-22 win in windy, snowy Pittsburgh.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Safety Sammy Knight, picked up off the street in training camp, leads the Jaguars in solo tackles (73), passes defensed (11) and interceptions (4, tied with Reggie Nelson).
Next: vs. Oakland.

6. PITTSBURGH (9-5, previous rank: 5)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 3-2, +4.6 PPG
Last week: A late rally went for naught in a 29-22 loss to Jacksonville.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: 55.4 percent of passes thrown to Steeler TE Heath Miller have gone for first downs, best in the NFL.
Next: at St. Louis, Thursday night. If everything breaks wrong and the Steelers lose their last two (Baltimore Week 17), the once 9-3 Steelers could still miss the playoffs.

7. SAN DIEGO (9-5, previous rank: 9)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 2-4, -8.0 PPG
Last week: The Chargers rolled up 274 rushing yards and 51 points on the never-say-live Detroit Lions.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: No. 3 RB Darren Sproles got the bulk of the garbage-time yards (122) last Sunday. But No. 2 Michael Turner continues to state his case for a No. 1 job somewhere. He averages 4.96 YPA on 53 carries this season, and boasts an awesome 5.73 YPA for his career (210 carries for 1,204 yards).
Next: vs. Denver.

8. TAMPA BAY (9-5, previous rank: 7)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 1-3, -7.8 PPG
Last week: Tampa held Atlanta to 133 yards of offense in a 37-3 win.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Can you say "one and done?" The Bucs are 5-0 against the pathetic NFC South with a +18.4 PPG scoring differential; they’re 4-5 vs. the rest of the NFL with a -2.0 PPG scoring differential.
Next: at San Francisco.

9. SEATTLE (9-5, previous rank: 8)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 1-2, -3.3 PPG
Last week: Oh, those Seahawks. Just as their bandwagon was starting to board passengers, they lost to Carolina, 13-10.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: One more win and the Seahawks will be in double digits for just the fifth time in franchise history (1984, 1986, 2003, 2005)
Next: vs. Baltimore. Yet another bad team on the Seahawks’ hit list (league-low three games vs. Quality Teams).

10. MINNESOTA (8-6, previous rank: 11)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 2-3, -1.8 PPG
Last week: The Vikings lost the turnover battle 4-1, but won the Adrian Peterson battle 78 yards to 26 in a 20-13 win over visiting Chicago.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Home-run hitter Adrian Peterson (the phenom one) has been tackled for a loss 31 times, second most in the league behind LaDainian Tomlinson (32). But he also boasts the most runs of 10+ yards (42), with Tomlinson No. 2 at 36.
Next: vs. Washington. Back-to-back televised games in late December for our beloved Vikings. Who woulda thunk it?

11. CLEVELAND (9-5, previous rank: 12)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 1-3, -11.0 PPG
Last week: Browns gave the game ball to Frosty the Snowman after 8-0 home win over Bills.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Derek “Mr. Clutch” Anderson has thrown just 2 of his 14 interceptions in the second half this year.
Next: at Cincinnati. Anderson’s growing legend was born in their first meeting, Cleveland’s 51-45 Week 2 win over the Bengals.

12. TENNESSEE (8-6, previous rank: 13)

Record vs. Quality Teams: 1-4, -4.6 PPG
Last week: Tennessee won for the first time with DT Albert Haynesworth out of the starting lineup (0-3 in previous three tries), beating Kansas City 26-17 on the road.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Haynesworth is one of the NFL’s best interior linemen, but he’s also one of its most injury prone – he’s missed at least two games in all five seasons since becoming a full-time starter in 2003.
Next: vs. N.Y. Jets. The Titans (formerly the Oilers) and Jets (formerly the Titans) have played in the same conference for 48 seasons, but have only met once in the postseason, a 17-10 Oilers victory over the Jets in the 1991 wildcard round.

THE TEPID TWENTY

13. NEW YORK GIANTS (9-5, previous rank: 10) – Three straight home losses by 10+ points is not the way to win over New York's patient, forgiving fans.

14. NEW ORLEANS (7-7, previous rank: 15) – In his last 10 games, QB Drew Brees has thrown only six INTs and been sacked just eight times.

15. PHILADELPHIA (6-8, previous rank: 19) – The better-than-their-record-would-indicate Eagles played four games against the NFL’s Fantastic Four (Green Bay, New England and Dallas twice) and came away with two three-point losses and a four-point win.

16. WASHINGTON (7-7, previous rank: 17) – Joe Gibbs proved his motivational talents as luckless 'Skins stayed in playoff race with surprising 22-10 win over Giants.

17. HOUSTON (7-7, previous rank: 18) – Unexpected developments: unheralded Texan WR Kevin Walter has had 100 passes thrown his way this year (catching 61 for 731 yards).

18. BUFFALO (7-7, previous rank: 14) – No. 30 in yards (279.9 per game), No. 30 in yards allowed (359.5) … and a .500 record?

19. ARIZONA (6-8, previous rank: 16) – Cardinals have allowed 30.8 PPG over their last six.

20. DENVER (6-8, previous rank: 20) – TE Tony Scheffler leads non-RBs, catching 80 percent of passes thrown his way (40 catches in 50 targets).

21. CHICAGO (5-9, previous rank: 23) – The Bears have been outgained on the ground in 9 of their last 10 games.

22. CAROLINA (6-8, previous rank: 26) – By season’s end, Carolina will have played seven games against playoff teams (eight if Tennessee gets in).

23. DETROIT (6-8, previous rank: 21) – In latest demoralizing loss, Lions committed six turnovers vs. SD despite holding the ball for just 18:28.

24. CINCINNATI (5-9, previous rank: 22) – A loss to Cleveland Sunday leaves Marvin Lewis’ career head coaching record at 40-40 (including postseason).

25. OAKLAND (4-10, previous rank: 24) – The Raiders suffered four double-digit losing seasons in their first 43 years. Now they're five for the last five since losing to Tampa in Super Bowl XXXVII.

26. BALTIMORE (4-10, previous rank: 25) – Sad but true: Kyle Boller is Baltimore's all-time passing leader (7,846 yards)

27. NEW YORK JETS (3-11, previous rank: 27) – When covering a 24-point spread is one of the highlights of your season, maybe it hasn’t been such a great year.

28. KANSAS CITY (4-10, previous rank: 28) – Including preseason, second-year QB Brodie Croyle has lost all seven of his starts.

29. SAN FRANCISCO (4-10, previous rank: 30) – Cinderella QB Shaun Hill followed his 106.9 passer rating against Minnesota with a 105.8 passer rating against Cincinnati … can he do it again vs. stingy Tampa D?

30. ST. LOUIS (3-11, previous rank: 29) – What is it about RB Steven Jackson and December? In his last seven December games, he's cranked out 1,303 yards from scrimmage and 13 TDs.

31. ATLANTA (3-11 previous rank: 31) – The Falcons were the Cold, Hard Football Facts preseason No. 32, and they could wind up there again with two more empty efforts.

32. MIAMI (1-13, previous rank: 32) – December 16th is clearly a date for historic Miami wins over Baltimore. Last week's victory over Baltimore was 35 years ago to the day that the 1972 Dolphins beat Baltimore (Colts) to finish their 14-0 regular season.