The way we see it, there are only three ways things can unfold once a team jumps into the pigskin pool that is the free-agency period.
We'll judge each NFL team here, today focusing on the AFC South ...
Free agents signed:
LB Shawn Barber (Philadelphia)
T Jordan Black (Kansas City)
RB Ahman Green (Green Bay)
LB Danny Clark (New Orleans)
DT Jeff Zgonina (Miami)
TE Mark Bruener (re-signed)
RB Ron Dayne (re-signed)
DE Ndukwe Kalu (re-signed)
T Ephraim Salaam (re-signed)
P Chad Stanley (re-signed)
Free agents lost:
CB Lewis Sanders (Atlanta)
DE Antwan Peek (Cleveland)
Free-agency status: Swimming
The Texans may be terrible, but at least they're doing something to improve their situation. A year after finishing 20th or worse in all 14 of the stats listed above (that's hard to do, folks), they have signed no less than 10 free-agents and traded for what
they hope will be their new franchise quarterback in Matt Schaub.
Will any of it matter? For a franchise that's never won more than seven games in a season, and just 24 of 80 (30 percent) in its short history, the answer is debatable. One common thread among the Texans' new/re-signed free agents is age – seven of the 10 are over 30. Only T Jordan Black, a fifth-year man out of Notre Dame acquired from the Chiefs, is a possible standout on the rise. While teams like the Patriots have excelled with experienced signings in the past, generally it's a strategy for teams with a stronger base than the on the Texans have.
Houston's big moves came with the trade for Schaub and the contract extension given to WR Andre Johnson. Johnson is a big-play threat that turned into a possession receiver last year in
Houston's extreme short attack – he averaged 11.1 yards a catch in 2006 and 10.9 in 2005 after topping 14.0 YPC his first two seasons. The addition of Schaub could bring back those healthier averages.
The Texans will definitely have a new look in 2007, and after the way they looked in 2006, any moves are probably good moves.
INDIANAPOLIS (12-4)
Where they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
3 |
3 |
18 |
2 |
12 |
23 |
32 |
2 |
Free agents signed:
DT Dan Klecko (re-signed)
LB Rob Morris (re-signed)
LB Gilbert Gardner (re-signed)
G Ryan Lilja (re-signed)
Free agents lost:
RB Dominic Rhodes (Oakland)
LB Cato June (Tampa Bay)
CB Nick Harper (Tennessee)
Free-agency status: Swimming
As we noted in a
previous piece about free agency, the Colts were among the teams hit hardest by free agency in 2005. To say they were able to overcome their losses, well, it goes without saying. You win the Super Bowl, and all your previous moves get added to the plus side of our gridiron ledger. Essentially, the Colts have become one of the teams, like New England and Pittsburgh, who in the past have turned judicious free-agent moves into Super Bowl championships.
This newest free-agency period is no different. With so much money tied up in Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison, the Colts have only signed one new free agent over the last two years – Adam Vinatieri, last season. They have lost three starters from the 2006 team, and also released contributors DT Montae Raegor and WR Brandon Stokley. Both Raegor (Eagles) and Stokley (Broncos) found jobs elserwhere.
However, with limited funds for free agents, the Colts have addressed their needs as well as they could. Their
legendarily poor run defense (5.33 yards a carry against) was the obvious place to focus in free agency. DT Dan Klecko and ILB/OLB Rob Morris both stepped in late last year and both are back. So is Ryan Lilja, a key member of the offensive line.
We hate to
agree with Pete Prisco, who's otherwise something short of a moron, but
Bill Polian continues to do an impressive job controlling his roster and keeping the Colts stocked with enough supporting players.
Where they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
11 |
9 |
3 |
24 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
Free agents signed:
WR Dennis Northcutt (Cleveland)
T Tony Pashos (Baltimore)
K Josh Scobee (re-signed)
Free agents lost:
TE Kyle Brady (New England)
S Deon Grant (Seattle)
Free-agency status: Treading water
Any effort to revisit the 2006 Jaguars leads to the same question: how did this team possibly lose eight games? They were just average in the passing game, but they were strong in every other category last year – only a remarkable knack for losing close games (2-7 in contests decided by a touchdown or less) kept them down.
That's not a problem you can solve in free agency, and the Jags haven't tried. They brought in Dennis Northcutt at receiver, bringing a refreshing lack of height at 5-10 to Jacksonville's freakishly tall receiving corps. Tackle Tony Pashos could challenge for a starting job on the O-line, but the loss of TE Kyle Brady will be felt. In Brady's seven years as Jacksonville's bruising extra Hog (6-6, 280), the Jaguars were no worse than 17th in yards-per-carry.
So the Jaguars are treading water – but with their starters more or less intact (including the two-headed, five-named
running back monster that is Maurice Fred Jones-Drew-Taylor), that's probably fine. Maybe spending their money on buying an NFL ref or two might be the way to go.
TENNESSEE (8-8)
Where they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
27 |
16 |
5 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
30 |
27 |
Free agents signed:
WR Justin Gage (Chicago)
CB Nick Harper (Indianapolis)
LB Ryan Fowler (Dallas)
QB Kerry Collins (re-signed)
DT Rien Long (re-signed)
T Seth Wand (re-signed)
LB LeVar Woods (re-signed)
DT Robaire Smith (Cleveland)
WR Bobby Wade (Minnesota)
WR Drew Bennett (St. Louis)
Free-agency status: Sinking
If you think
Vince Young was amazing as a rookie in 2006, well, he'd better be even more amazing in 2007 if the Titans are going to have a repeat of their 8-8 season. As you can see from both common and
Quality Stats, the Titans were one of the most inept teams in the league.
Tennessee was the polar opposite of division rival Jacksonville. The Jaguars were a dominant .500; the Titans were a charmed .500, going 7-4 in games decided by a TD or less and scoring a whopping eight touchdowns on returns (most in the NFL).
With
the worst defensive hogs in the business in 2006, the 2007 Titans are already minus-one on the D-line, losing Robaire Smith to Cleveland and gaining no one. They did retain Rien Long, who played zero games in 2006 due to injury. Houston also lost its top two wideouts, Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, and sent their 1,211-yard, 4.5-yard-per-crack RB packing (Travis Henry, now with the Broncos).
The Titans went through a cap-induced purge in 2005, but despite a lack of big-name talent they still appear to be sellers, not buyers. They added Nick Harper to the CB mix, one of the prizes of the free-agent period. But
if Pacman Jones (and his three return TDs) misses time in 2007, the Titans will be in even worse shape than they were last year, when they finished 25th in
defensive passer rating.
Tennessee is still a team in the rebuilding process, but thanks to its 8-8 record they'll pick 19th in the draft this year. With needs all over the place, the Titans better make the most of them.
